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<p>Ethiopia's Green Legacy Initiative (GLI), launched in 2019, aims to combat environmental degradation through large-scale afforestation. This study quantitatively evaluates GLI's impact on land use/cover (LU/C) dynamics (2013–2024) in Gubalafto District, North-eastern Ethiopia, using Landsat-8 and Sentinel-2 imagery processed via Google Earth Engine (GEE) employing the Random Forest (RF) algorithm and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) analysis. The RF classifier achieved high accuracy (OA = 99% for 2016–2024 and OA = 73% in 2013) in mapping six LU/C classes. Key findings reveal significant ecological shifts: woodland increased by 41.85&#xa0;km<sup>2</sup> (net gain), largely through conversion from agricultural land (76.93&#xa0;km<sup>2</sup>) and bareland (16.06&#xa0;km<sup>2</sup>). Forest cover fluctuated, declining from 16.43% (165.96&#xa0;km<sup>2</sup>) in 2013 to 14.60% (147.47&#xa0;km<sup>2</sup>) in 2024; this might be influenced by armed conflict post-2020 that disrupted restoration efforts. The NDVI analysis showed high-density vegetation rising from 0.98% (9.89&#xa0;km<sup>2</sup>) in 2013 to 9.38% (94.71&#xa0;km<sup>2</sup>) in 2024, peaking in 2020 (NDVI max: 0.95). Despite the nationwide planting of 38.6 billion seedlings, district-level survival rates averaged only 39.80% (range: 7.59–76.50%), indicating a critical gap between planting efforts and sustainable outcomes. The study demonstrates GLI's effectiveness in woodland recovery and greening but highlights vulnerabilities from socio-political instability and inadequate seedling maintenance. Prioritizing survival rates through improved species selection, irrigation, community engagement, and integrating GLI within broader peace-building frameworks are indeed to ensure long-term ecological resilience.</p>

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Evaluating the impact of Ethiopia’s green legacy initiative on land use/cover change in Gubalafto district using google earth engine

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年10月2日

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  • Setiye Abebaw Tefera,
  • Vijaya Lakshmi Thatiparthi

摘要

Ethiopia's Green Legacy Initiative (GLI), launched in 2019, aims to combat environmental degradation through large-scale afforestation. This study quantitatively evaluates GLI's impact on land use/cover (LU/C) dynamics (2013–2024) in Gubalafto District, North-eastern Ethiopia, using Landsat-8 and Sentinel-2 imagery processed via Google Earth Engine (GEE) employing the Random Forest (RF) algorithm and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) analysis. The RF classifier achieved high accuracy (OA = 99% for 2016–2024 and OA = 73% in 2013) in mapping six LU/C classes. Key findings reveal significant ecological shifts: woodland increased by 41.85 km2 (net gain), largely through conversion from agricultural land (76.93 km2) and bareland (16.06 km2). Forest cover fluctuated, declining from 16.43% (165.96 km2) in 2013 to 14.60% (147.47 km2) in 2024; this might be influenced by armed conflict post-2020 that disrupted restoration efforts. The NDVI analysis showed high-density vegetation rising from 0.98% (9.89 km2) in 2013 to 9.38% (94.71 km2) in 2024, peaking in 2020 (NDVI max: 0.95). Despite the nationwide planting of 38.6 billion seedlings, district-level survival rates averaged only 39.80% (range: 7.59–76.50%), indicating a critical gap between planting efforts and sustainable outcomes. The study demonstrates GLI's effectiveness in woodland recovery and greening but highlights vulnerabilities from socio-political instability and inadequate seedling maintenance. Prioritizing survival rates through improved species selection, irrigation, community engagement, and integrating GLI within broader peace-building frameworks are indeed to ensure long-term ecological resilience.