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Background <p>Over the past decade, China has experienced a surge in doctors and beds, along with significant increase in healthcare utilization. This study compares the need-based and demand-based projections with supply of doctors and beds in China from 2021 to 2025. We also evaluate the adequacy and equitable distribution of doctors and beds.</p> Methods <p>By utilizing public data from 2008 to 2018, we employed the health need method, health demand method, and trend projection to estimate the need and demand for and supply of doctors and beds in China.</p> Results <p>By 2025, the projected need-based, demand-based, and supply of doctors will be 5.93 million, 3.89 million, and 4.40 million, respectively. Correspondingly, bed projections stand at 7.27 million, 6.58 million, and 11.06 million. The study found an inclination toward hospital care, amplified by the need and demand for doctors and beds in hospital sector. Notably, the findings indicate 64.0% and 87.5% of incremental doctors and beds supply will be in hospital sector by 2025, intensifying towards a hospital-centric healthcare system.</p> Conclusion <p>Considering current trajectories, this study reveals an excess supply of doctors and beds in China by 2025, with widening disparities that favour inefficient hospitals than primary care institutions. We recommend the government to emphasize the importance of optimal investment and allocation of doctors and beds between hospital and primary care sectors, reform the payment method in favour of primary care, and reorient public preferences for hospital services, by strengthening the capacity and quality of primary sector in order to gain population’s trust and confidence.</p>

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Anticipated need, demand, and supply of doctors and beds in China: approaching a turning point

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年2月10日

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  • Quan Wang,
  • Siqi Liu,
  • Xiaochen Yang,
  • Chao Gong,
  • Wentian Zhang,
  • Li Yang,
  • Hui Li,
  • Qiang Sun,
  • Viroj Tangcharoensathien

摘要

Background

Over the past decade, China has experienced a surge in doctors and beds, along with significant increase in healthcare utilization. This study compares the need-based and demand-based projections with supply of doctors and beds in China from 2021 to 2025. We also evaluate the adequacy and equitable distribution of doctors and beds.

Methods

By utilizing public data from 2008 to 2018, we employed the health need method, health demand method, and trend projection to estimate the need and demand for and supply of doctors and beds in China.

Results

By 2025, the projected need-based, demand-based, and supply of doctors will be 5.93 million, 3.89 million, and 4.40 million, respectively. Correspondingly, bed projections stand at 7.27 million, 6.58 million, and 11.06 million. The study found an inclination toward hospital care, amplified by the need and demand for doctors and beds in hospital sector. Notably, the findings indicate 64.0% and 87.5% of incremental doctors and beds supply will be in hospital sector by 2025, intensifying towards a hospital-centric healthcare system.

Conclusion

Considering current trajectories, this study reveals an excess supply of doctors and beds in China by 2025, with widening disparities that favour inefficient hospitals than primary care institutions. We recommend the government to emphasize the importance of optimal investment and allocation of doctors and beds between hospital and primary care sectors, reform the payment method in favour of primary care, and reorient public preferences for hospital services, by strengthening the capacity and quality of primary sector in order to gain population’s trust and confidence.