<p>Mangrove deforestation in Indonesia amounts to roughly 18,209 ha per year (18.26 MtCO₂e/year<sup>−1</sup>). However, spatial and temporal integrative research in eastern Indonesia's coastal areas remains limited. This study aims to analyse mangrove forests' condition and spatio-temporal changes, compute above-ground carbon (AGC) as a basis for sustainable coastal management in Sumbawa Regency and support the 2030 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) target. This research merges UAV-RGB data (July 2024) and multitemporal PlanetScope imagery (2016 and 2024) to develop a Canopy Height Model (CHM) and calculate the AGC. Land use classification was accomplished using Object-Based Image Analysis (OBIA)—Random Forest (RF), while changing trends were assessed using Modules for Land Use Change Evaluation/Simulations (MOLUSCE). AGC at the study site was in the range of 21—168 <InlineEquation ID="IEq1"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">${\text{MgC}.\text{ha}}^{-1}$</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <msup> <mrow> <mtext>MgC</mtext> <mo>.</mo> <mtext>ha</mtext> </mrow> <mrow> <mo>-</mo> <mn>1</mn> </mrow> </msup> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation> (mean = 72.3 <InlineEquation ID="IEq2"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">${\text{MgC}.\text{ha}}^{-1}$</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <msup> <mrow> <mtext>MgC</mtext> <mo>.</mo> <mtext>ha</mtext> </mrow> <mrow> <mo>-</mo> <mn>1</mn> </mrow> </msup> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation>, total = 8,999.9 <InlineEquation ID="IEq3"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">$\text{MgC}$</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mtext>MgC</mtext> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation>. The investigation found a change of 37.89 ha of mangrove area to barren and shrubland, resulting in an AGC loss of 2,739.5 <InlineEquation ID="IEq4"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">$\text{MgC}$</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mtext>MgC</mtext> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation>. However, there has been an increase in land use and changes in aquaculture and agriculture. This study proposes a novel approach by merging UAV data and time-series satellite images to increase the accuracy of AGC prediction in data-sparse locations. A nature-based Solution (NbS) is advocated as an integrated method for adaptive mangrove restoration and conservation, while still supporting the demands of the local community. This research presents a geographical framework that may be duplicated to create inclusive and adaptable coastal resource management plans and directly contribute to reaching the 2030 NDC targets.</p>

The spatio-temporal analysis of land use changes & above-ground carbon stock in Sumbawa mangrove ecosystem, Indonesia

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2026年2月6日

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Jaka Putra Rahmajati,
Vina Nurul Husna,
Yulius Yulius,
Taslim Arifin,
Hadiwijaya L. Salim,
Rinny Rahmania,
Aprizon Putra,
Muhammad Ramdhan,
Anang Dwi Purwanto,
August Daulat,
Joko Prihantono,
Hafidzuddin Fihrin,
Farel A. Aditama

摘要

Mangrove deforestation in Indonesia amounts to roughly 18,209 ha per year (18.26 MtCO₂e/year⁻¹). However, spatial and temporal integrative research in eastern Indonesia's coastal areas remains limited. This study aims to analyse mangrove forests' condition and spatio-temporal changes, compute above-ground carbon (AGC) as a basis for sustainable coastal management in Sumbawa Regency and support the 2030 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) target. This research merges UAV-RGB data (July 2024) and multitemporal PlanetScope imagery (2016 and 2024) to develop a Canopy Height Model (CHM) and calculate the AGC. Land use classification was accomplished using Object-Based Image Analysis (OBIA)—Random Forest (RF), while changing trends were assessed using Modules for Land Use Change Evaluation/Simulations (MOLUSCE). AGC at the study site was in the range of 21—168 ${\text{MgC}.\text{ha}}^{-1}$ ${MgC . ha}^{- 1}$ (mean = 72.3 ${\text{MgC}.\text{ha}}^{-1}$ ${MgC . ha}^{- 1}$ , total = 8,999.9 $\text{MgC}$ $MgC$ . The investigation found a change of 37.89 ha of mangrove area to barren and shrubland, resulting in an AGC loss of 2,739.5 $\text{MgC}$ $MgC$ . However, there has been an increase in land use and changes in aquaculture and agriculture. This study proposes a novel approach by merging UAV data and time-series satellite images to increase the accuracy of AGC prediction in data-sparse locations. A nature-based Solution (NbS) is advocated as an integrated method for adaptive mangrove restoration and conservation, while still supporting the demands of the local community. This research presents a geographical framework that may be duplicated to create inclusive and adaptable coastal resource management plans and directly contribute to reaching the 2030 NDC targets.