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<p>Recent severe aviation accidents have underscored the intricate challenges within the aviation system, necessitating a more comprehensive understanding of hazards’ interrelation in flight operation. This study integrates the Threat and Error Management (TEM) framework with complex network theory to construct a Flight Operation Hazard Network (FOHN) based on 260 aviation occurrence reports. The FOHN, comprising 120 nodes (hazards) and 208 edges (causal links), exhibits unique structural characteristics: a low clustering coefficient (0.03), long average path length (4.20), and an exponential degree distribution (<i>R</i><sup>2</sup> = 0.994), confirming the absence of small-world and scale-free properties. These features reflect aviation’s defense-in-depth strategy, where sparse connectivity aims to isolate hazards. Analysis of the FOHN’s response to simulated hazard mitigation reveals its relative stability against non-targeted hazard removal but significant disruption when critical high-betweenness hazards are targeted for mitigation. The study identifies crew navigation errors as key risk mediators, bridging technical failures and organizational deficiencies. By proposing actionable enhancements grounded in these network findings—including resilience-augmented training, flight data-driven risk prioritization, and regulatory updates—this work provides a network-centric framework to address “black swan” risks in modern aviation systems.</p>

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Unveiling Flight Operation Hazards’ Interrelation via TEM Model and Network Analysis

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2025年7月27日

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  • Peng He,
  • Zhaoning Zhang,
  • Ruishan Sun

摘要

Recent severe aviation accidents have underscored the intricate challenges within the aviation system, necessitating a more comprehensive understanding of hazards’ interrelation in flight operation. This study integrates the Threat and Error Management (TEM) framework with complex network theory to construct a Flight Operation Hazard Network (FOHN) based on 260 aviation occurrence reports. The FOHN, comprising 120 nodes (hazards) and 208 edges (causal links), exhibits unique structural characteristics: a low clustering coefficient (0.03), long average path length (4.20), and an exponential degree distribution (R2 = 0.994), confirming the absence of small-world and scale-free properties. These features reflect aviation’s defense-in-depth strategy, where sparse connectivity aims to isolate hazards. Analysis of the FOHN’s response to simulated hazard mitigation reveals its relative stability against non-targeted hazard removal but significant disruption when critical high-betweenness hazards are targeted for mitigation. The study identifies crew navigation errors as key risk mediators, bridging technical failures and organizational deficiencies. By proposing actionable enhancements grounded in these network findings—including resilience-augmented training, flight data-driven risk prioritization, and regulatory updates—this work provides a network-centric framework to address “black swan” risks in modern aviation systems.