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<p>This research investigates the impact of solar renewable energy source (RES) penetration on power system reliability indices. The increasing integration of solar RES presents challenges to grid stability due to their intermittent nature, necessitating advanced methodologies for reliability assessment. This study focuses on three key indices: System Average Interruption Frequency Index (SAIFI), System Average Interruption Duration Index (SAIDI), and Expected Energy Not Supplied (EENS). A Bayesian approach using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) sampling within <i>Stan</i> utilizing <i>rstanarm</i> package in <i>R</i> was employed to analyze real-world data from the CENPELCO San Carlos 20MVA substation in the Philippines. Gamma regression models were selected as superior to Gaussian and Weibull models based on model fitting scores of WAIC and LOOIC with − 4158.4 and − 4265.4 expected log predictive density scores respectively. The models incorporated solar RES penetration levels, load profiles, and average daily-hourly solar irradiance as predictors. Results indicate no statistically significant relationship between solar RES penetration and SAIDI or SAIFI, with zero Gamma model coefficients, potentially due to the masking effect of solar irradiance variability, diverse load profiles, and the conventional substation-level reliability index measurements. However, EENS showed Gamma model coefficient of 0.1, a small non-significant positive relationship with solar RES penetration. The study highlights the need for more sophisticated models to fully capture the dynamic relationships between solar RES integration and reliability indices. This study indicates that increasing solar RES penetration alone may not guarantee improved system-level reliability indices for distribution utilities. Grid operators should prioritize investments in reliability-enhancing measures and sophisticated grid management strategies to address solar intermittency. The findings emphasize the importance of customer-level impact assessments and suggest that policy frameworks should incentivize grid modernization and standardized customer-level reliability assessment methods. Future research should explore higher solar RES penetration scenarios and incorporate additional factors influencing reliability. This research offers a robust Bayesian framework for assessing the impact of solar RES penetration on power system reliability.</p>

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Bayesian reliability modeling of solar energy penetration in power systems using hamiltonian monte carlo

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年11月4日

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  • Hanz Ysrael S. Fronda

摘要

This research investigates the impact of solar renewable energy source (RES) penetration on power system reliability indices. The increasing integration of solar RES presents challenges to grid stability due to their intermittent nature, necessitating advanced methodologies for reliability assessment. This study focuses on three key indices: System Average Interruption Frequency Index (SAIFI), System Average Interruption Duration Index (SAIDI), and Expected Energy Not Supplied (EENS). A Bayesian approach using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) sampling within Stan utilizing rstanarm package in R was employed to analyze real-world data from the CENPELCO San Carlos 20MVA substation in the Philippines. Gamma regression models were selected as superior to Gaussian and Weibull models based on model fitting scores of WAIC and LOOIC with − 4158.4 and − 4265.4 expected log predictive density scores respectively. The models incorporated solar RES penetration levels, load profiles, and average daily-hourly solar irradiance as predictors. Results indicate no statistically significant relationship between solar RES penetration and SAIDI or SAIFI, with zero Gamma model coefficients, potentially due to the masking effect of solar irradiance variability, diverse load profiles, and the conventional substation-level reliability index measurements. However, EENS showed Gamma model coefficient of 0.1, a small non-significant positive relationship with solar RES penetration. The study highlights the need for more sophisticated models to fully capture the dynamic relationships between solar RES integration and reliability indices. This study indicates that increasing solar RES penetration alone may not guarantee improved system-level reliability indices for distribution utilities. Grid operators should prioritize investments in reliability-enhancing measures and sophisticated grid management strategies to address solar intermittency. The findings emphasize the importance of customer-level impact assessments and suggest that policy frameworks should incentivize grid modernization and standardized customer-level reliability assessment methods. Future research should explore higher solar RES penetration scenarios and incorporate additional factors influencing reliability. This research offers a robust Bayesian framework for assessing the impact of solar RES penetration on power system reliability.