<p>Projected climate data has vital importance in analyzing the seasonal and annual variability of precipitation. This study was conducted based on regional climate model (RCM) performance evaluation in the Abbay and Awash river basins, Ethiopia. A total of 29 rainfall stations were selected to evaluate the models based on the long-term observed data (1973–2014) compared to projected data from 1973 to 2005 (historical) and 2026–2100 (future) using the RCP4.5 scenario. Five bias correction techniques were applied, and three RCMs were compared. Out of five bias correction techniques, linear scaling and power transformation have resulted in a minimum percentage of error. The result indicated that RACMO has good performance both in the Abbay and Awash river basins compared to RCA4 and RCA, with R<sup>2</sup> and MAPE values of 0.9999 and 1.67 for Abbay and 0.9999 and 1.44 for Awash river basins, respectively. The seasonal and annual variability trend of future precipitation in Abbay river will be decreased by 0.45% from 2026 to 2067 and increased by 1.31% from 2068 to 2100 whereas in the Awah river basin, it will be decreased by 28.88% and 24.7% from 2026 to 2067 and 2068 to 2100 respectively compared to the historical precipitation trend from 1973 to 2014. This indicates that the Awash river basin needs good water resource management strategies in the future to balance demand and supply variability. Therefore, policymakers and the Ethiopian Ministry of Water and Energy have to be given attention while developing different public use projects both in the Abbay and Awash river basins concerning the sustainable water resource utilization mechanism.</p>

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Evaluating the performance of regional climate models to simulate seasonal variability of precipitation in Abbay and Awash river basins, Ethiopia

  • Kassa Abera Tareke

摘要

Projected climate data has vital importance in analyzing the seasonal and annual variability of precipitation. This study was conducted based on regional climate model (RCM) performance evaluation in the Abbay and Awash river basins, Ethiopia. A total of 29 rainfall stations were selected to evaluate the models based on the long-term observed data (1973–2014) compared to projected data from 1973 to 2005 (historical) and 2026–2100 (future) using the RCP4.5 scenario. Five bias correction techniques were applied, and three RCMs were compared. Out of five bias correction techniques, linear scaling and power transformation have resulted in a minimum percentage of error. The result indicated that RACMO has good performance both in the Abbay and Awash river basins compared to RCA4 and RCA, with R2 and MAPE values of 0.9999 and 1.67 for Abbay and 0.9999 and 1.44 for Awash river basins, respectively. The seasonal and annual variability trend of future precipitation in Abbay river will be decreased by 0.45% from 2026 to 2067 and increased by 1.31% from 2068 to 2100 whereas in the Awah river basin, it will be decreased by 28.88% and 24.7% from 2026 to 2067 and 2068 to 2100 respectively compared to the historical precipitation trend from 1973 to 2014. This indicates that the Awash river basin needs good water resource management strategies in the future to balance demand and supply variability. Therefore, policymakers and the Ethiopian Ministry of Water and Energy have to be given attention while developing different public use projects both in the Abbay and Awash river basins concerning the sustainable water resource utilization mechanism.