Why do experts disagree on existential risk? A survey of AI experts
摘要
The development of artificial general intelligence (AGI) is likely to be one of humanity’s most consequential technological advancements. Leading AI labs and scientists have called for the global prioritization of AI safety, citing existential risks comparable to nuclear war. However, research on catastrophic risks and AI alignment is often met with skepticism, even by machine learning experts. Furthermore, online debate over the existential risk of AI has begun to turn tribal (e.g. using labels such as “doomer” or “accelerationist”). Until now, no systematic study has explored the patterns of belief and the levels of familiarity with AI safety concepts among experts. I surveyed 111 AI experts (NeurIPS authors, ML-focused PhD students, and industry ML engineers; Sect.