Purpose <p>The macroeconomic environment is a key determinant of private investment especially in developing countries like Sub-Saharan Africa. Although some studies have been able to measure the impacts of macroeconomic conditions on the growth of a national economy, little studies have been able to specifically assess the impact of variables such as inflation, exchange rates, interest rates and output changes on small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), new business formation, access to credit and investment activity across a number of countries. Accordingly, this study evaluates how macroeconomic stability influences private investment in Sub-Saharan Africa, with implications for achieving Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly those related to economic growth and industrial development.</p> Design/methodology/approach <p>The panel dataset used in the study includes 2010–2023 resource-rich and non-resource-rich countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. The relationships between macroeconomic variables and private investment indicators are explored using the descriptive statistics, Levin-Lin-Chu unit root tests, dynamic panel estimation based on the orthogonal deviations and the Granger causality tests.</p> Findings <p>The results of this analysis indicate that inflation and exchange rate volatility have a negative effect on the survival of SMEs and investment, whereas stable interest rates and stable growth in output influence the formation of business and access to credit. The impact is greater in countries that are dependent on resources, whereby the macroeconomic shocks have a negative impact of deterring micro-investment. Also, the results of Granger causality show that the microeconomic investment is caused by macroeconomic stability, which implies that the relationship between macro conditions and entrepreneurial activity should be unidirectional.</p> Research limitations/implications <p>The study is limited to the available macroeconomic and private investment data for 2010–2023, which might limit generalization. The observed relationships might be polished by expanding the dataset with other countries and a longer time period.</p> Practical implications <p>To enable the SMEs and micro-investment, the macroeconomic stabilization policies, including inflation control, interest rate regulation, and exchange rate regulation, should be given priority by policy makers in Sub-Saharan Africa. Access to better finance and specific credit policy towards small businesses can further increase investment and productivity. This study contributes to SDGs 8 and 9 by showing how macroeconomic stability strengthens private investment and SME resilience, supporting productive employment (SDG 8.3) and access of small enterprises to finance (SDG 9.3) in Sub-Saharan Africa.</p> Social implications <p>Stable macroeconomic conditions that promote private investment can reduce unemployment, poverty, and social unrest by supporting entrepreneurial activity and sustainable livelihoods across the region.</p> Originality/value <p>Compared to previous studies, this study integrates macroeconomic and private investment perspectives in a Sub Saharan African setting and presents empirical data on the direct effect of macroeconomic factors on entrepreneurship. The results bring into the spotlight the fact that micro-investment environment is very much susceptible to macroeconomic volatility and more so in the resource-dependent countries.</p>

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Assessing the role of macroeconomic environment in private investment in Sub-Sahara Africa

  • Oluwakemi Rebecca Alake,
  • Rafiu Adewale Aregbeshola

摘要

Purpose

The macroeconomic environment is a key determinant of private investment especially in developing countries like Sub-Saharan Africa. Although some studies have been able to measure the impacts of macroeconomic conditions on the growth of a national economy, little studies have been able to specifically assess the impact of variables such as inflation, exchange rates, interest rates and output changes on small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), new business formation, access to credit and investment activity across a number of countries. Accordingly, this study evaluates how macroeconomic stability influences private investment in Sub-Saharan Africa, with implications for achieving Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly those related to economic growth and industrial development.

Design/methodology/approach

The panel dataset used in the study includes 2010–2023 resource-rich and non-resource-rich countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. The relationships between macroeconomic variables and private investment indicators are explored using the descriptive statistics, Levin-Lin-Chu unit root tests, dynamic panel estimation based on the orthogonal deviations and the Granger causality tests.

Findings

The results of this analysis indicate that inflation and exchange rate volatility have a negative effect on the survival of SMEs and investment, whereas stable interest rates and stable growth in output influence the formation of business and access to credit. The impact is greater in countries that are dependent on resources, whereby the macroeconomic shocks have a negative impact of deterring micro-investment. Also, the results of Granger causality show that the microeconomic investment is caused by macroeconomic stability, which implies that the relationship between macro conditions and entrepreneurial activity should be unidirectional.

Research limitations/implications

The study is limited to the available macroeconomic and private investment data for 2010–2023, which might limit generalization. The observed relationships might be polished by expanding the dataset with other countries and a longer time period.

Practical implications

To enable the SMEs and micro-investment, the macroeconomic stabilization policies, including inflation control, interest rate regulation, and exchange rate regulation, should be given priority by policy makers in Sub-Saharan Africa. Access to better finance and specific credit policy towards small businesses can further increase investment and productivity. This study contributes to SDGs 8 and 9 by showing how macroeconomic stability strengthens private investment and SME resilience, supporting productive employment (SDG 8.3) and access of small enterprises to finance (SDG 9.3) in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Social implications

Stable macroeconomic conditions that promote private investment can reduce unemployment, poverty, and social unrest by supporting entrepreneurial activity and sustainable livelihoods across the region.

Originality/value

Compared to previous studies, this study integrates macroeconomic and private investment perspectives in a Sub Saharan African setting and presents empirical data on the direct effect of macroeconomic factors on entrepreneurship. The results bring into the spotlight the fact that micro-investment environment is very much susceptible to macroeconomic volatility and more so in the resource-dependent countries.