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<p>Conventional tariff systems are structurally misaligned with climate objectives: designed around product classifications rather than environmental performance, they provide no price-based incentive for cleaner production and leave heterogeneous emissions externalities unaddressed. This study develops and empirically evaluates the Digital Sustainability Tariff (DST) an adaptive tariff architecture embedding digitally verified, multidimensional sustainability metrics (carbon intensity, energy footprint, water use, and ESG performance) directly into tariff calibration through algorithmically governed modulation. Drawing on a panel of 30 emerging economies over 2008–2024 and exploiting institutional shocks around the Paris Agreement (2015) and the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (2021), we estimate two-way fixed effects, System GMM, and difference-in-differences models. Three findings emerge. First, sustainability-adjusted tariff signals reduce export carbon intensity, but this effect is entirely concentrated above a statistically identified digital governance threshold (DGC ≈ 0.42, bootstrap <i>p</i> = 0.018) below which sustainability provisions are empirically inert. Second, approximately 41% of the total decarbonization effect operates through production-side energy efficiency improvements, indicating structural technological upgrading rather than superficial trade reallocation. Third, multidimensional tariff signals outperform carbon-only adjustments on both outcome measures (ΔTECI = − 0.022, <i>p</i> = 0.038; ΔEGS = + 0.017, <i>p</i> = 0.041), directly distinguishing the DST from instruments such as CBAM. The study extends Institutional Theory into algorithmic trade instruments and specifies digital enforcement infrastructure as the operative mechanism of Ecological Modernization in trade governance. The central policy implication is sequencing: sustainability-integrated tariff reform must be preceded by credible digital verification infrastructure, without which institutional commitment remains declarative rather than consequential.</p>

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Estimating the effects of ESG integrated digital sustainability tariffs on export carbon intensity and energy efficiency in emerging markets

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月23日

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  • Gabriel Ayodeji Ogunmola,
  • Ganiev Bakhtiyor Zulfiqor,
  • Khajiev Bakhtiyor Dushaboevich,
  • Mamarakhimov Bekzod Erkinovich,
  • Abdullaev Suyun Artikovich,
  • Israilova Dilfuzakhon Karimovna

摘要

Conventional tariff systems are structurally misaligned with climate objectives: designed around product classifications rather than environmental performance, they provide no price-based incentive for cleaner production and leave heterogeneous emissions externalities unaddressed. This study develops and empirically evaluates the Digital Sustainability Tariff (DST) an adaptive tariff architecture embedding digitally verified, multidimensional sustainability metrics (carbon intensity, energy footprint, water use, and ESG performance) directly into tariff calibration through algorithmically governed modulation. Drawing on a panel of 30 emerging economies over 2008–2024 and exploiting institutional shocks around the Paris Agreement (2015) and the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (2021), we estimate two-way fixed effects, System GMM, and difference-in-differences models. Three findings emerge. First, sustainability-adjusted tariff signals reduce export carbon intensity, but this effect is entirely concentrated above a statistically identified digital governance threshold (DGC ≈ 0.42, bootstrap p = 0.018) below which sustainability provisions are empirically inert. Second, approximately 41% of the total decarbonization effect operates through production-side energy efficiency improvements, indicating structural technological upgrading rather than superficial trade reallocation. Third, multidimensional tariff signals outperform carbon-only adjustments on both outcome measures (ΔTECI = − 0.022, p = 0.038; ΔEGS = + 0.017, p = 0.041), directly distinguishing the DST from instruments such as CBAM. The study extends Institutional Theory into algorithmic trade instruments and specifies digital enforcement infrastructure as the operative mechanism of Ecological Modernization in trade governance. The central policy implication is sequencing: sustainability-integrated tariff reform must be preceded by credible digital verification infrastructure, without which institutional commitment remains declarative rather than consequential.