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<p>This article aims to examine the trends and determinants of agricultural budget allocation in Ethiopia, focusing on its alignment with national development priorities. Covering the period from 2006 to 2025, the study analyzes the evolution of public agricultural financing and its driving factors using time series data. A quantitative research design is applied, employing descriptive statistics, trend analysis, and econometric modeling through the ARDL and VECM frameworks. The results show that although total agricultural spending has grown in nominal terms, its share in the federal budget has declined by an average of 0.63 percentage points annually. Agricultural GDP and its share in the national economy are negatively associated with budget share, while funding allocated to&#xa0;the Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research (EIAR)&#xa0;positively influences allocations. The study concludes that&#xa0;while agricultural budget allocation has increased in nominal terms, its declining share in the federal budget poses a challenge to sustained sectoral growth. Systemic inefficiencies in budget execution and prioritization remain. It recommends prioritizing agriculture in medium-term budget frameworks, strengthening institutional funding for agricultural research, and expanding investment in agro-processing and value addition each recommendation directly derived from the empirical findings.</p>

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A multidecadal analysis of trends and determinants of agricultural budget allocation in Ethiopia

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  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月2日

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  • Dawud Seid,
  • Bedru Beshir

摘要

This article aims to examine the trends and determinants of agricultural budget allocation in Ethiopia, focusing on its alignment with national development priorities. Covering the period from 2006 to 2025, the study analyzes the evolution of public agricultural financing and its driving factors using time series data. A quantitative research design is applied, employing descriptive statistics, trend analysis, and econometric modeling through the ARDL and VECM frameworks. The results show that although total agricultural spending has grown in nominal terms, its share in the federal budget has declined by an average of 0.63 percentage points annually. Agricultural GDP and its share in the national economy are negatively associated with budget share, while funding allocated to the Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research (EIAR) positively influences allocations. The study concludes that while agricultural budget allocation has increased in nominal terms, its declining share in the federal budget poses a challenge to sustained sectoral growth. Systemic inefficiencies in budget execution and prioritization remain. It recommends prioritizing agriculture in medium-term budget frameworks, strengthening institutional funding for agricultural research, and expanding investment in agro-processing and value addition each recommendation directly derived from the empirical findings.