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<p>This study examines how exchange rates and global uncertainty interact to shape international tourism demand across G20 economies. Using annual data from 2001 to 2023, we apply a PMG-ARDL framework, complemented by heterogeneity and panel quantile regressions, to identify long-run relationships and distribution-specific responses. The results show that per capita income is the dominant long-run driver of tourism demand, while the positive effects of currency depreciation weaken substantially under elevated uncertainty. Moreover, we document a systematic divergence between advanced and emerging destinations: advanced economies preserve their exchange-rate advantages during uncertain periods, whereas emerging markets experience an erosion of price competitiveness. These findings suggest that exchange-rate-based strategies alone are insufficient to sustain tourism demand in volatile environments without macroeconomic stability and institutional resilience.</p>

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Global uncertainty and the effectiveness of currency depreciation on tourism demand in G20 economies

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月16日

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  • Yeşim Helhel,
  • Selcuk Helhel

摘要

This study examines how exchange rates and global uncertainty interact to shape international tourism demand across G20 economies. Using annual data from 2001 to 2023, we apply a PMG-ARDL framework, complemented by heterogeneity and panel quantile regressions, to identify long-run relationships and distribution-specific responses. The results show that per capita income is the dominant long-run driver of tourism demand, while the positive effects of currency depreciation weaken substantially under elevated uncertainty. Moreover, we document a systematic divergence between advanced and emerging destinations: advanced economies preserve their exchange-rate advantages during uncertain periods, whereas emerging markets experience an erosion of price competitiveness. These findings suggest that exchange-rate-based strategies alone are insufficient to sustain tourism demand in volatile environments without macroeconomic stability and institutional resilience.