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<p>This study examines agroclimatic and economic factors as determinants of total factor productivity (TFP) in Myanmar’s rice sector, with a focus on the Ayeyarwady Delta. The analysis integrates regional time series climate data from 1981 to 2024 with village‑level survey data collected in 2024. We employ fixed effects and dynamic Common Correlated Effects (DCCE) estimators to address endogeneity and identify short‑ and long‑run relationships. The findings reveal that high temperature is a major constraint: a 1% increase in temperature is associated with a 1.44% decline in TFP in the Ayeyarwady region, equivalent to approximately 3.9% for a 1&#xa0;°C increase at the mean temperature level. The dynamic model shows that humidity and solar radiation exert significant negative effects in the short run, while precipitation, solar radiation, and wind speed significantly influence TFP in the long run. Empirical evidence indicates diminishing returns to capital expenditure but strong positive effects of labor. Access to irrigation is associated with higher TFP (0.170 standard deviation increase), though its effectiveness depends on management practices. Credit access shows no significant direct effect but positively moderates the impacts of temperature, solar radiation, wind speed, and soil wetness, suggesting that credit can support climate adaptation when appropriately targeted. Collectively, these results highlight critical synergistic relationships between climatic and economic variables that underpin agricultural resilience in the context of regional environmental transformation. Based on these findings, we discuss policy implications including: (1) targeted investments in climate‑resilient irrigation infrastructure; (2) promotion of heat‑tolerant rice varieties alongside modern agricultural machinery; and (3) reform of credit mechanisms to support productivity‑enhancing climate adaptations.</p>

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Agroclimatic constraints on rice total factor productivity and implications for resilience in the Myanmar Delta

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月1日

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  • Nyi Nyi Aung#,
  • Haixia Wu#,
  • Qin Xiao,
  • JunJie Li,
  • Jianping Li

摘要

This study examines agroclimatic and economic factors as determinants of total factor productivity (TFP) in Myanmar’s rice sector, with a focus on the Ayeyarwady Delta. The analysis integrates regional time series climate data from 1981 to 2024 with village‑level survey data collected in 2024. We employ fixed effects and dynamic Common Correlated Effects (DCCE) estimators to address endogeneity and identify short‑ and long‑run relationships. The findings reveal that high temperature is a major constraint: a 1% increase in temperature is associated with a 1.44% decline in TFP in the Ayeyarwady region, equivalent to approximately 3.9% for a 1 °C increase at the mean temperature level. The dynamic model shows that humidity and solar radiation exert significant negative effects in the short run, while precipitation, solar radiation, and wind speed significantly influence TFP in the long run. Empirical evidence indicates diminishing returns to capital expenditure but strong positive effects of labor. Access to irrigation is associated with higher TFP (0.170 standard deviation increase), though its effectiveness depends on management practices. Credit access shows no significant direct effect but positively moderates the impacts of temperature, solar radiation, wind speed, and soil wetness, suggesting that credit can support climate adaptation when appropriately targeted. Collectively, these results highlight critical synergistic relationships between climatic and economic variables that underpin agricultural resilience in the context of regional environmental transformation. Based on these findings, we discuss policy implications including: (1) targeted investments in climate‑resilient irrigation infrastructure; (2) promotion of heat‑tolerant rice varieties alongside modern agricultural machinery; and (3) reform of credit mechanisms to support productivity‑enhancing climate adaptations.