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<p>This study analyzes the effect of structural change on CO<sub>2</sub> emissions in 33 OECD countries over 2000–2020, focusing on structural change, guided by green finance (GF) and reinforced by environmental policy stringency (EPS), as key levers for decarbonization. To capture heterogeneity across countries and along the emissions distribution, advanced econometric techniques were employed, including cointegrating regressions and Powell’s (2016) Quantile Regression for Panel Data (QRDP), with robustness assessed via FGLS, Driscoll–Kraay standard errors, and Method-of-Moments Quantile Regression (MMQR). The model controls for economic growth (GDP) and renewable energy consumption (REC). Quantile regression results reveal heterogeneous effects of structural change and GF on CO<sub>2</sub> emissions. Structural change strongly reduces emissions in low-emission countries (−2.525 at the 10th percentile) but increases them in high-emission economies (0.322 at the 90th percentile). GF shows a modest but significant mitigating effect, whereas EPS consistently reduces emissions across the distribution. GDP exerts a positive effect on emissions, more pronounced in low- and medium-emission countries, while REC contributes to emission reductions, particularly at intermediate quantiles. These findings highlight the need for emission-level-specific strategies: low-emission countries should prioritize structural transitions toward higher-value-added, less energy-intensive sectors and integrate renewable energy; moderate-emission economies benefit from combining renewable energy expansion with targeted green financial incentives; high-emission countries require simultaneous strengthening of EPS and strategic allocation of GF to overcome structural rigidities. Across all levels, coherent regulatory frameworks should be complemented by flexible adjustment mechanisms. Integrating structural change with economic, regulatory, and financial instruments, guided by quantile-based insights, is essential to maximize the effectiveness and equity of decarbonization policies.</p>

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Quantile analysis of green finance environmental policy stringency and structural change effects on OECD CO2 emissions

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月3日

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  • Zohra Kahouli,
  • Daghbagi Hamrouni,
  • Radhouane Hasni,
  • Dhouha Dridi

摘要

This study analyzes the effect of structural change on CO2 emissions in 33 OECD countries over 2000–2020, focusing on structural change, guided by green finance (GF) and reinforced by environmental policy stringency (EPS), as key levers for decarbonization. To capture heterogeneity across countries and along the emissions distribution, advanced econometric techniques were employed, including cointegrating regressions and Powell’s (2016) Quantile Regression for Panel Data (QRDP), with robustness assessed via FGLS, Driscoll–Kraay standard errors, and Method-of-Moments Quantile Regression (MMQR). The model controls for economic growth (GDP) and renewable energy consumption (REC). Quantile regression results reveal heterogeneous effects of structural change and GF on CO2 emissions. Structural change strongly reduces emissions in low-emission countries (−2.525 at the 10th percentile) but increases them in high-emission economies (0.322 at the 90th percentile). GF shows a modest but significant mitigating effect, whereas EPS consistently reduces emissions across the distribution. GDP exerts a positive effect on emissions, more pronounced in low- and medium-emission countries, while REC contributes to emission reductions, particularly at intermediate quantiles. These findings highlight the need for emission-level-specific strategies: low-emission countries should prioritize structural transitions toward higher-value-added, less energy-intensive sectors and integrate renewable energy; moderate-emission economies benefit from combining renewable energy expansion with targeted green financial incentives; high-emission countries require simultaneous strengthening of EPS and strategic allocation of GF to overcome structural rigidities. Across all levels, coherent regulatory frameworks should be complemented by flexible adjustment mechanisms. Integrating structural change with economic, regulatory, and financial instruments, guided by quantile-based insights, is essential to maximize the effectiveness and equity of decarbonization policies.