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<p>This study examines the spatiotemporal dynamics of urban expansion and agricultural land loss in the peri-urban areas of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, from 1985 to 2025, and projects future land-use trajectories to 2055 using Geographic Information Systems (GIS), remote sensing, and hybrid MLP–Markov modeling. Multi-temporal Landsat imagery was classified using supervised Maximum Likelihood Classification and post-classification change detection to quantify historical Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) transitions. Results reveal a dramatic decline in cropland from 32.71% (14,209&#xa0;ha) in 1985 to 10.28% (4468.8&#xa0;ha) in 2025 alongside rapid expansion of built-up areas from 12.41% (5392.4&#xa0;ha) to 68.57% (29,789.19&#xa0;ha). Transition analysis, combined with key spatial drivers (distance to roads, population density, slope, and elevation), was used to train a Multilayer Perceptron neural network to generate transition potential maps. Integrated MLP–Markov simulations predict that built-up land will increase further to 89%, 90%, and 91% by 2035, 2045, and 2055, respectively, reducing cropland to approximately 5% by mid-century. Classification reliability is supported by high ROC-AUC (0.875) and Kappa (&gt; 0.79) values. The findings highlight severe threats to peri-urban agricultural livelihoods, food security, and ecological stability as urban growth intensifies. The study underscores the urgent need for integrated and enforceable land-use policies that balance urban development with the preservation of agricultural and ecological systems, offering evidence-based insights for sustainable urban planning in rapidly growing cities across the globe.<!--Query ID="Q1" Text="Please check and confirm the author names and initials are correct. Author 1 Given name [Tingrit Ashagre], Family name [Kebede], Author 2 Given name [Bewketu Mamaru], Family name [Mengiste], Author 3 Given name [Workineh Tesfaye], Family name [Alemu]. Also, kindly confirm the details in the metadata are correct." Resolved="yes"--></p>

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Spatiotemporal dynamics of urban expansion driven agricultural land loss and its implications for sustainability

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月14日

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  • Tingrit Ashagre Kebede,
  • Bewketu Mamaru Mengiste,
  • Workineh Tesfaye Alemu

摘要

This study examines the spatiotemporal dynamics of urban expansion and agricultural land loss in the peri-urban areas of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, from 1985 to 2025, and projects future land-use trajectories to 2055 using Geographic Information Systems (GIS), remote sensing, and hybrid MLP–Markov modeling. Multi-temporal Landsat imagery was classified using supervised Maximum Likelihood Classification and post-classification change detection to quantify historical Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) transitions. Results reveal a dramatic decline in cropland from 32.71% (14,209 ha) in 1985 to 10.28% (4468.8 ha) in 2025 alongside rapid expansion of built-up areas from 12.41% (5392.4 ha) to 68.57% (29,789.19 ha). Transition analysis, combined with key spatial drivers (distance to roads, population density, slope, and elevation), was used to train a Multilayer Perceptron neural network to generate transition potential maps. Integrated MLP–Markov simulations predict that built-up land will increase further to 89%, 90%, and 91% by 2035, 2045, and 2055, respectively, reducing cropland to approximately 5% by mid-century. Classification reliability is supported by high ROC-AUC (0.875) and Kappa (> 0.79) values. The findings highlight severe threats to peri-urban agricultural livelihoods, food security, and ecological stability as urban growth intensifies. The study underscores the urgent need for integrated and enforceable land-use policies that balance urban development with the preservation of agricultural and ecological systems, offering evidence-based insights for sustainable urban planning in rapidly growing cities across the globe.