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<p>The transformation of electricity markets from imported fossil-based generation to indigenous green energy sources is very necessary now a day. A case study of Pakistan is being investigated through Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) software from 2023 to 2060. The Imported Fuel Scenario (IPFS) and Indigenous Fuel Scenario (IDFS) were developed to forecast future energy demands, production, carbon emissions, and system costs. The IPFS scenario suggested the use of imported fossil fuels, such as coal, natural gas, and furnace oil, in line with the government of Pakistan’s ongoing policies. Under the IDFS scenario, two assumptions were made: first, to incorporate a greater share of indigenous coal and hydro resources, and second, to utilize a large amount of indigenous wind and solar resources. The results indicated that the 2023 energy demand of 126.13 TWh is projected to rise to 1,792.73 TWh by 2060. Energy production in 2023 was 152.39 TWh, and it is expected to rise to 2,106.62 TWh by 2060. The study’s findings indicate that the IPFS scenario, which involves the use of imported fossil fuel, is supported despite its high system cost of USD 4,823&#xa0;million, as it produces 82.91% of the electricity and generates 935.27&#xa0;million metric tons of carbon emissions. However, the IDFS scenario makes a transition to a net-zero imported fuel possible. A higher proportion of indigenous coal and hydropower is expected to generate 25.06% and 37.33% of energy, respectively, until 2060. The system’s cost is projected to be USD 1,838.11&#xa0;million by 2060, and carbon emissions are expected to be reduced to 570.52&#xa0;million metric tons by 2060. A greater share of indigenous wind and solar energy is projected to produce 27.2% and 36.31% of energy by 2060, thereby reducing the system’s cost and carbon emissions to USD 95.795&#xa0;million and 230.27&#xa0;million metric tons by 2060.</p>

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Sustainable power generation using indigenous energy sources to reduce reliance on imported fossil fuel

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月9日

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  • Muhammad Amir Raza,
  • Muhammad Mohsin Aman,
  • Abdul Sattar Nizami,
  • Khurram Shahzad,
  • Jibran Khaliq,
  • Mohammad Rehan

摘要

The transformation of electricity markets from imported fossil-based generation to indigenous green energy sources is very necessary now a day. A case study of Pakistan is being investigated through Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) software from 2023 to 2060. The Imported Fuel Scenario (IPFS) and Indigenous Fuel Scenario (IDFS) were developed to forecast future energy demands, production, carbon emissions, and system costs. The IPFS scenario suggested the use of imported fossil fuels, such as coal, natural gas, and furnace oil, in line with the government of Pakistan’s ongoing policies. Under the IDFS scenario, two assumptions were made: first, to incorporate a greater share of indigenous coal and hydro resources, and second, to utilize a large amount of indigenous wind and solar resources. The results indicated that the 2023 energy demand of 126.13 TWh is projected to rise to 1,792.73 TWh by 2060. Energy production in 2023 was 152.39 TWh, and it is expected to rise to 2,106.62 TWh by 2060. The study’s findings indicate that the IPFS scenario, which involves the use of imported fossil fuel, is supported despite its high system cost of USD 4,823 million, as it produces 82.91% of the electricity and generates 935.27 million metric tons of carbon emissions. However, the IDFS scenario makes a transition to a net-zero imported fuel possible. A higher proportion of indigenous coal and hydropower is expected to generate 25.06% and 37.33% of energy, respectively, until 2060. The system’s cost is projected to be USD 1,838.11 million by 2060, and carbon emissions are expected to be reduced to 570.52 million metric tons by 2060. A greater share of indigenous wind and solar energy is projected to produce 27.2% and 36.31% of energy by 2060, thereby reducing the system’s cost and carbon emissions to USD 95.795 million and 230.27 million metric tons by 2060.