<p>In this research, we develop a prey-predator SIRS-type model that examines how tourism’s linear dependence on carrying capacities affects wildlife disease dynamics and ecosystem stability. The results of the numerical analysis and simulations indicate that moderate tourism levels can facilitate the coexistence of prey and predator species by increasing their effective carrying capacities. In contrast, excessive tourism exerts destabilizing effects on the equilibrium of the system. The analysis further demonstrates that tourism can strengthen resilience by increasing resources or weaken it by increasing disease infection rates and predation pressure in the ecosystem. Identified factors that influence the persistence of the disease in the park include greater carrying capacity, higher predation rates, increased infection levels, and reduced host immunity. These findings emphasize the need to implement sustainable tourism development management practices to maintain ecosystem stability and conserve biodiversity. The study advocates for an integrated management approach that synthesizes mathematical modeling, field-based surveillance, and adaptive policy frameworks to balance conservation priorities with sustainable economic development in wildlife-dependent ecosystems.</p>

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SIRS epidemiological modelling of prey–predator wild animal populations with tourism effects

  • Kumlachew Wubale Tesfaw,
  • Ayele Taye Goshu,
  • Tsegaye Simon Lachamo

摘要

In this research, we develop a prey-predator SIRS-type model that examines how tourism’s linear dependence on carrying capacities affects wildlife disease dynamics and ecosystem stability. The results of the numerical analysis and simulations indicate that moderate tourism levels can facilitate the coexistence of prey and predator species by increasing their effective carrying capacities. In contrast, excessive tourism exerts destabilizing effects on the equilibrium of the system. The analysis further demonstrates that tourism can strengthen resilience by increasing resources or weaken it by increasing disease infection rates and predation pressure in the ecosystem. Identified factors that influence the persistence of the disease in the park include greater carrying capacity, higher predation rates, increased infection levels, and reduced host immunity. These findings emphasize the need to implement sustainable tourism development management practices to maintain ecosystem stability and conserve biodiversity. The study advocates for an integrated management approach that synthesizes mathematical modeling, field-based surveillance, and adaptive policy frameworks to balance conservation priorities with sustainable economic development in wildlife-dependent ecosystems.