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<p>Gross domestic product growth and nominal exchange rate movements are central to understanding trade performance in North African economies. This study examines the impact of these factors, alongside import and export value indices, price levels, and gross national expenditure, on trade volumes in six North African countries over the period 1995–2022 using panel data and dynamic two-step system Generalized Method of Moments estimation. The analysis addresses potential endogeneity stemming from reverse causality, simultaneity, and omitted variables. The results indicate that higher gross domestic product is associated with reduced trade dependence, while currency depreciation lowers trade volumes by raising import costs and eroding export competitiveness. Import and export value indices contribute positively to trade, whereas higher price levels and increased domestic expenditure exert a constraining effect. These findings provide region-specific policy insights for enhancing trade competitiveness, maintaining exchange rate stability, and fostering deeper global economic integration.</p>

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Economic growth and currency dynamics as determinants of trade in North African economies

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年12月31日

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  • Mohammed Nagro,
  • Rozina Shaheen

摘要

Gross domestic product growth and nominal exchange rate movements are central to understanding trade performance in North African economies. This study examines the impact of these factors, alongside import and export value indices, price levels, and gross national expenditure, on trade volumes in six North African countries over the period 1995–2022 using panel data and dynamic two-step system Generalized Method of Moments estimation. The analysis addresses potential endogeneity stemming from reverse causality, simultaneity, and omitted variables. The results indicate that higher gross domestic product is associated with reduced trade dependence, while currency depreciation lowers trade volumes by raising import costs and eroding export competitiveness. Import and export value indices contribute positively to trade, whereas higher price levels and increased domestic expenditure exert a constraining effect. These findings provide region-specific policy insights for enhancing trade competitiveness, maintaining exchange rate stability, and fostering deeper global economic integration.