From access to willingness to pay: analyzing drivers and barriers in smallholder farmers’ sequential decision-making on climate information services adoption using the double-selection probit model
摘要
Climate Information (CI) services play a critical role in enhancing smallholder farmers' adaptive capacity to climate change. However, the effective uptake of CI in rural areas remains limited, and few studies have examined the underlying challenges. This study investigates the drivers and barriers to CI adoption among smallholder farmers in Migori County (Kenya) and the determinants of access, demand, and willingness to pay (WTP) for CI. Data from 318 households were analysed using descriptive statistics, chi-square, and a double-selection probit model, which examined the sequential decision-making process influencing farmers' engagement with CI. The study finds that while 52% accessed CI, 61.1% of them expressed dissatisfaction with its adequacy for decision-making. Farmers mainly accessed seasonal forecasts and weather warnings, primarily via radio. However, they prioritize information on rainfall timing and a combination of either seasonal or early warnings with production impact data as the most critical CI. Enhancing household food security was a primary motivation for CI adoption, reported by 92.8% of all CI users, with a significantly higher proportion among upstream farmers (100%) compared to midstream (93.4%) and downstream (85.5%) farmers (X2 = 8.46, p = 0.015). Soil preparation, weeding, and cropping were the three operations most influenced by CI, with no significant differences among the zones (p > 0.05). The double-selection probit model revealed that age, education, farm size, and watershed section significantly influence farmers' engagement with CI, i.e., access to CI, desire for additional CI, and WTP for it. Older farmers showed a negative association with access to and desire for additional CI, while education and farm size were strong positive predictors of all stages of CI adoption.