<p>The transition to a circular economy (CE) is constrained by multiple barriers embedded in existing linear value chains. Although previous studies have contributed to the broad identification and systematic classification of CE barriers, less attention has been paid to how they interact and create stagnation within material circulation processes. To address this gap, this study introduces the concept of Intermediate System Conditions (ISCs) and develops an analytical framework that links barrier interactions to Persistent Outcomes (POs) along material circulation processes. The framework is applied to four case studies in Japan, where a long-standing dependence on incineration and the continued leakage of recyclable resources are framed as structural policy challenges. Barriers and ISCs were identified through triangulation of documentary sources and semi-structured interviews conducted to capture practical constraints and contextual interpretations. The analysis suggests that interactions among diverse barriers are associated with ISCs, including limited domestic availability of recyclable materials and structurally constrained profitability, thereby stabilizing persistent non-circular outcomes. The results further indicate that addressing persistent outcomes requires a careful, case-by-case analysis of stabilization structures, together with strong institutional governance supported by policy mixes that account for existing infrastructure. The framework offers a new analytical perspective on how intermediate processes link barrier interactions with path-dependent stabilization in sustainability transitions.</p>