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<p>Literature from the Global North has considered macro-level inequality and welfare as two of the main explanatory factors of punitiveness. However, recent research has shown that these supposedly universal relationships do not hold for Latin America. In the regional context, Uruguay stands out for its long democratic tradition, early development of the welfare state, and relatively low levels of inequality. However, it is the South American country with the highest incarceration rate. In addition, the trend of increasing punitiveness did not stop during the recent ‘progressive era’ (2005–2019) marked by historic economic growth and a notable improvement in income distribution. This study examines the underlying factors that contribute to explain the incarceration rate trajectory in Uruguay. We direct particular attention to the role of key macro-level factors, including poverty, inequality, and welfare expenditure, and their relationship with incarceration rates over time. Furthermore, we take advantage of the substantial variation in government policy orientations across the period to examine how government policy may moderate these associations, thereby exploring the relevance of government policy in fueling or curbing mass incarceration, as well&#xa0;as identifying its limits. This quantitative analysis is also enriched by a historical contextualization of the various sociopolitical periods that the country has undergone since its return to democracy. This contextualization and characterizing&#xa0;of the different government periods deepens our understanding of the mechanisms underlying punitive expansion and provides a more nuanced view of the role of state policies and electoral cycles in this trajectory.</p>

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Punitive Inertia? Social Spending, Inequality, and Political Cycles in Uruguay: the Role of Policy and its Limits

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年4月11日

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  • Ana Vigna,
  • Joaquín Cardeillac Gulla,
  • Cecilia Chouhy

摘要

Literature from the Global North has considered macro-level inequality and welfare as two of the main explanatory factors of punitiveness. However, recent research has shown that these supposedly universal relationships do not hold for Latin America. In the regional context, Uruguay stands out for its long democratic tradition, early development of the welfare state, and relatively low levels of inequality. However, it is the South American country with the highest incarceration rate. In addition, the trend of increasing punitiveness did not stop during the recent ‘progressive era’ (2005–2019) marked by historic economic growth and a notable improvement in income distribution. This study examines the underlying factors that contribute to explain the incarceration rate trajectory in Uruguay. We direct particular attention to the role of key macro-level factors, including poverty, inequality, and welfare expenditure, and their relationship with incarceration rates over time. Furthermore, we take advantage of the substantial variation in government policy orientations across the period to examine how government policy may moderate these associations, thereby exploring the relevance of government policy in fueling or curbing mass incarceration, as well as identifying its limits. This quantitative analysis is also enriched by a historical contextualization of the various sociopolitical periods that the country has undergone since its return to democracy. This contextualization and characterizing of the different government periods deepens our understanding of the mechanisms underlying punitive expansion and provides a more nuanced view of the role of state policies and electoral cycles in this trajectory.