The impact of COVID-19 on economic growth: how did international trade and FDI help
摘要
Using the GEE regression model, this paper examines the role of economic diversification and access to global supply chains in explaining variations in economic growth across countries during the COVID-19 period. The study argues that international trade—supported by greater economic diversification—and foreign direct investment (FDI), a major factor in the integration and diversification of global supply chains, were crucial in helping economies mitigate the negative impact of COVID-19. Economies that are open, more engaged in international trade, and attract foreign direct investment (FDI) demonstrate greater resilience. This suggests that protectionism and trade wars undermine the advantages of robust global value chains that connect firms and countries within the world economy. Nevertheless, the results highlight an important point: to benefit from international trade, countries should avoid building their trade strategies on rigid comparative advantages. Instead, specialization should be a dynamic process in which countries develop complex economic structures by diversifying within and across products. Diversification of international trade across products and markets is key to supply chain diversification, which enhances countries’ resilience during pandemics.