<p>This study presents a comprehensive empirical investigation into the nexus between financial inclusion and economic growth, utilizing a panel dataset of 28 Indian districts from 2014 to 2024. Challenging monotonic narratives, the research investigates the nonlinear dynamics, transmission mechanisms, and structural vulnerabilities associated with rapid credit expansion. Moving beyond arbitrarily weighted metrics, the study constructs a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) based Financial Inclusion Index (FII) that synthesizes banking access, credit penetration, and digital infrastructure. The econometric framework employs Fixed Effects and System Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimators, attempting to account for dynamic panel biases while openly acknowledging persistent endogeneity constraints. Results reveal a robust, statistically significant positive structural association between financial inclusion and district-level economic growth. Crucially, the findings demonstrate this relationship is highly conditional. The developmental dividends of financial access are significantly amplified by complementary human capital and robust governance, but exhibit diminishing marginal returns in saturated markets. Furthermore, financial inclusion’s capacity to reduce inequality and boost employment is heavily contingent on local institutional quality. Acknowledging the profound limitations of purposive sampling, the weakness of geographic instruments, and the reality that lagged variables do not guarantee exogeneity, the study strictly frames these findings as robust associations rather than deterministic causality. The evidence underscores that an expansionary financial inclusion agenda without concurrent investments in institutional governance, macroprudential regulation, and financial literacy- risks precipitating over-indebtedness, localized credit bubbles, and systemic financial fragility.</p>

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Exploring the impact of financial inclusion on economic growth: an empirical study

  • Jai Prakash Pandey,
  • Mahesh Kumar Sarva

摘要

This study presents a comprehensive empirical investigation into the nexus between financial inclusion and economic growth, utilizing a panel dataset of 28 Indian districts from 2014 to 2024. Challenging monotonic narratives, the research investigates the nonlinear dynamics, transmission mechanisms, and structural vulnerabilities associated with rapid credit expansion. Moving beyond arbitrarily weighted metrics, the study constructs a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) based Financial Inclusion Index (FII) that synthesizes banking access, credit penetration, and digital infrastructure. The econometric framework employs Fixed Effects and System Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimators, attempting to account for dynamic panel biases while openly acknowledging persistent endogeneity constraints. Results reveal a robust, statistically significant positive structural association between financial inclusion and district-level economic growth. Crucially, the findings demonstrate this relationship is highly conditional. The developmental dividends of financial access are significantly amplified by complementary human capital and robust governance, but exhibit diminishing marginal returns in saturated markets. Furthermore, financial inclusion’s capacity to reduce inequality and boost employment is heavily contingent on local institutional quality. Acknowledging the profound limitations of purposive sampling, the weakness of geographic instruments, and the reality that lagged variables do not guarantee exogeneity, the study strictly frames these findings as robust associations rather than deterministic causality. The evidence underscores that an expansionary financial inclusion agenda without concurrent investments in institutional governance, macroprudential regulation, and financial literacy- risks precipitating over-indebtedness, localized credit bubbles, and systemic financial fragility.