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<p>Road-transport decarbonisation in small island developing states hinges on import-driven fleet dynamics and the policy instruments that shape technology uptake. Using Jamaica as a case study, this paper analyses a vehicle-import microdataset and an aggregate fuel-consumption series for 2014–2023 to characterise market structure, trace early electric-vehicle (EV) adoption, and evaluate short-run disruptions and predictive performance. Lorenz–Gini analysis reveals strong concentration in import values (Gini = 0.84), consistent with a market dominated by used internal-combustion vehicles. HS-code profiling shows that EV-related imports are nascent but expanding across a small set of product codes. An interrupted time-series model with a 2020 intervention identifies a statistically significant pre-pandemic upward trend in annual vehicle imports but finds no significant level shift or post-2020 trend change. For short-horizon forecasting of annual imports, Auto-ARIMA outperforms naïve and linear-trend benchmarks (MAPE ≈ 6.5% on 2022–2023 hold-out years), whereas Prophet performs poorly in this annual setting. An exploratory multi-criteria decision analysis (N = 6) suggests stakeholders prioritise enabling measures such as charging/grid infrastructure and supportive tariff design alongside fiscal incentives. The findings inform integrated policy packages that combine import governance with EV-enabling infrastructure to accelerate a sustainable mobility transition in Jamaica and comparable SIDS.</p>

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Assessing Jamaica’s transportation sector: sustainable mobility policy, import-value concentration, and electric vehicle uptake

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月5日

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  • Curtis Boodoo

摘要

Road-transport decarbonisation in small island developing states hinges on import-driven fleet dynamics and the policy instruments that shape technology uptake. Using Jamaica as a case study, this paper analyses a vehicle-import microdataset and an aggregate fuel-consumption series for 2014–2023 to characterise market structure, trace early electric-vehicle (EV) adoption, and evaluate short-run disruptions and predictive performance. Lorenz–Gini analysis reveals strong concentration in import values (Gini = 0.84), consistent with a market dominated by used internal-combustion vehicles. HS-code profiling shows that EV-related imports are nascent but expanding across a small set of product codes. An interrupted time-series model with a 2020 intervention identifies a statistically significant pre-pandemic upward trend in annual vehicle imports but finds no significant level shift or post-2020 trend change. For short-horizon forecasting of annual imports, Auto-ARIMA outperforms naïve and linear-trend benchmarks (MAPE ≈ 6.5% on 2022–2023 hold-out years), whereas Prophet performs poorly in this annual setting. An exploratory multi-criteria decision analysis (N = 6) suggests stakeholders prioritise enabling measures such as charging/grid infrastructure and supportive tariff design alongside fiscal incentives. The findings inform integrated policy packages that combine import governance with EV-enabling infrastructure to accelerate a sustainable mobility transition in Jamaica and comparable SIDS.