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<p>This paper examines the economic and environmental impacts of Vietnam’s energy transition, with a particular focus on addressing the country’s large bilateral trade surplus with the United States. Using the GTAP-E-Power model, we simulate policy scenarios that combine Vietnam’s revised Power Development Plan VIII with varying shares of liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports from the United States. The findings suggest that pursuing the twin goals of decarbonizing the power sector and improving trade relations entails compromises between environmental sustainability and economic performance. While the expansion of gas-fired power and renewable electricity generation reduces dependence on coal and oil, it also dampens economic growth, with GDP declining by 4.5–5.8%, and undermines export competitiveness in key sectors with high levels of foreign direct investment (FDI). Notably, total carbon dioxide emissions increase slightly by 2.1–4.0%, primarily due to greater reliance on natural gas, which remains a fossil fuel. At the same time, rising LNG imports from the United States contribute to narrowing the bilateral trade surplus by US$1.97–2.55&#xa0;billion, although the difference between the 30% and 40% import scenarios remains modest. This study offers a novel contribution by linking energy transition with trade rebalancing strategies in a developing country context. The findings provide new insights into how environmental policy, energy security, and trade diplomacy can be jointly pursued within a coherent strategic framework.</p>

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Energy transition in the context of bilateral trade deficit reduction: evidence from the GTAP-E-Power model

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月12日

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  • Nguyen Chi Duc,
  • Nhat Duy Lai

摘要

This paper examines the economic and environmental impacts of Vietnam’s energy transition, with a particular focus on addressing the country’s large bilateral trade surplus with the United States. Using the GTAP-E-Power model, we simulate policy scenarios that combine Vietnam’s revised Power Development Plan VIII with varying shares of liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports from the United States. The findings suggest that pursuing the twin goals of decarbonizing the power sector and improving trade relations entails compromises between environmental sustainability and economic performance. While the expansion of gas-fired power and renewable electricity generation reduces dependence on coal and oil, it also dampens economic growth, with GDP declining by 4.5–5.8%, and undermines export competitiveness in key sectors with high levels of foreign direct investment (FDI). Notably, total carbon dioxide emissions increase slightly by 2.1–4.0%, primarily due to greater reliance on natural gas, which remains a fossil fuel. At the same time, rising LNG imports from the United States contribute to narrowing the bilateral trade surplus by US$1.97–2.55 billion, although the difference between the 30% and 40% import scenarios remains modest. This study offers a novel contribution by linking energy transition with trade rebalancing strategies in a developing country context. The findings provide new insights into how environmental policy, energy security, and trade diplomacy can be jointly pursued within a coherent strategic framework.