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<p>Over the course of the 1960s and 1970s, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) evolved from a largely ineffective and disorganized group into the dominant force in international crude oil markets. In this paper we employ a methodological toolkit comprised of evolutionary game theory and agent-based modeling to study the development of OPEC over this period. Our evolutionary game theory model incorporates energy-specific variables and behavioral considerations to depict the actions of cartel members over the period of interest. Our agent-based model provides detailed results and demonstrates the importance of growing oil reserves to the outcome of the model.</p>

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The development of OPEC: an evolutionary game theory and agent-based modeling approach

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年6月9日

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  • Aaron D. Wood,
  • Charles F. Mason,
  • David Finnoff

摘要

Over the course of the 1960s and 1970s, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) evolved from a largely ineffective and disorganized group into the dominant force in international crude oil markets. In this paper we employ a methodological toolkit comprised of evolutionary game theory and agent-based modeling to study the development of OPEC over this period. Our evolutionary game theory model incorporates energy-specific variables and behavioral considerations to depict the actions of cartel members over the period of interest. Our agent-based model provides detailed results and demonstrates the importance of growing oil reserves to the outcome of the model.