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<p>The Delhi-National Capital Region (NCR) lies within Seismic Zones III and IV as per the Indian Earthquake Code IS 1893 (Part 1): 2016, demonstrating a high level of seismic hazard. The region has experienced 665 independent events over the last 25&#xa0;years (2000–2025), with around ~ 26.6 events/year, mostly <i>M</i><sub><i>w</i></sub> &lt; 4, as per the available dataset. High population density, rapid urbanisation, and obsolete infrastructure influence local site conditions, shaping the spatial distribution and amplification of seismic hazard. In the present study, a seismic hazard assessment of the Delhi-NCR was conducted using geological data and multi-criteria decision-making methods, namely the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy-AHP. Findings indicate that more than 45% of the study region and about 54% of the population are exposed to areas mapped as high-seismic-hazard, particularly in Panipat, Sonipat, and Rohtak. Seismic hazard across Delhi varies from low to very high, influenced by the nearby Himalayan collision zone and active faults such as the Delhi-Haridwar Ridge and Mahendragarh-Dehradun Fault. Ongoing convergence of the Indian and Eurasian plates produces tectonic stress capable of reactivating these faults. Receiver-operator characteristic (ROC) analysis provided the accuracy values of 0.8086 for AHP and 0.8083 for Fuzzy-AHP, indicating that AHP performs statistically indistinguishably. The seismic hazard map developed through this analysis can help with urban planning, disaster preparedness, and the design of earthquake-resilient infrastructure.</p>

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AHP-based seismic hazard zonation for the Delhi-NCR Region, India, with a fuzzy-AHP robustness assessment

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月10日

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  • Sukanta Malakar,
  • Debarshi Saha,
  • Abhisek Santra,
  • Arindam Dey,
  • Kaustubh Dasgupta

摘要

The Delhi-National Capital Region (NCR) lies within Seismic Zones III and IV as per the Indian Earthquake Code IS 1893 (Part 1): 2016, demonstrating a high level of seismic hazard. The region has experienced 665 independent events over the last 25 years (2000–2025), with around ~ 26.6 events/year, mostly Mw < 4, as per the available dataset. High population density, rapid urbanisation, and obsolete infrastructure influence local site conditions, shaping the spatial distribution and amplification of seismic hazard. In the present study, a seismic hazard assessment of the Delhi-NCR was conducted using geological data and multi-criteria decision-making methods, namely the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy-AHP. Findings indicate that more than 45% of the study region and about 54% of the population are exposed to areas mapped as high-seismic-hazard, particularly in Panipat, Sonipat, and Rohtak. Seismic hazard across Delhi varies from low to very high, influenced by the nearby Himalayan collision zone and active faults such as the Delhi-Haridwar Ridge and Mahendragarh-Dehradun Fault. Ongoing convergence of the Indian and Eurasian plates produces tectonic stress capable of reactivating these faults. Receiver-operator characteristic (ROC) analysis provided the accuracy values of 0.8086 for AHP and 0.8083 for Fuzzy-AHP, indicating that AHP performs statistically indistinguishably. The seismic hazard map developed through this analysis can help with urban planning, disaster preparedness, and the design of earthquake-resilient infrastructure.