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<p>Historical incidences of wildfires in Gujarat and its protected areas detected by satellite-borne Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) in summer and winter over 2017–2022 are reported. The mean yearly fire count was found to be &gt; 6 folds higher in summer (556) over winter (86) in protected areas and also, over entire Gujarat (8242 in summer against 5625 in winter). The most wildfire-affected protected areas were Shoolpaneshwar, Jambughoda and Purna in summer 2022 (mean fire spots: 124, 88 and 17, respectively) and Gir, Shoolpaneshwar and Pania in winter 2022–23 (mean fire spots: 44, 26 and 11, respectively), all located in southern and south-eastern Gujarat having higher vegetative cover over other parts. Fire count in all protected areas taken together had a decreasing trend over the study period but had an opposite trend over entire Gujarat at the same time. Normalized Burn Ratio-Thermal index, generated on Normalized Burn Ratio (NBR) by integrating a thermal infrared band, aided in separation of burnt and non-burnt areas. LST and NBRT showed positive linear associations on 5000 data points in both summer 2022 and winter 2022–23. AI-driven multilayer perceptron-based wildfire risk model, incorporating select climatic, soil and vegetation parameters, was deployed to map wildfire risk zones which corresponded well with the observed fire spot clusters over Gujarat.</p>

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Seasonal dynamics of wildfires (2017–2022) in protected areas of Gujarat and wildfire risk zonation by Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) Neural Network model

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月12日

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  • Deepanjan Majumdar,
  • Sourav Dutta

摘要

Historical incidences of wildfires in Gujarat and its protected areas detected by satellite-borne Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) in summer and winter over 2017–2022 are reported. The mean yearly fire count was found to be > 6 folds higher in summer (556) over winter (86) in protected areas and also, over entire Gujarat (8242 in summer against 5625 in winter). The most wildfire-affected protected areas were Shoolpaneshwar, Jambughoda and Purna in summer 2022 (mean fire spots: 124, 88 and 17, respectively) and Gir, Shoolpaneshwar and Pania in winter 2022–23 (mean fire spots: 44, 26 and 11, respectively), all located in southern and south-eastern Gujarat having higher vegetative cover over other parts. Fire count in all protected areas taken together had a decreasing trend over the study period but had an opposite trend over entire Gujarat at the same time. Normalized Burn Ratio-Thermal index, generated on Normalized Burn Ratio (NBR) by integrating a thermal infrared band, aided in separation of burnt and non-burnt areas. LST and NBRT showed positive linear associations on 5000 data points in both summer 2022 and winter 2022–23. AI-driven multilayer perceptron-based wildfire risk model, incorporating select climatic, soil and vegetation parameters, was deployed to map wildfire risk zones which corresponded well with the observed fire spot clusters over Gujarat.