<p>Armed conflicts cause devastating consequences not only socially and environmentally, but also for human health. This study aimed to (I) synthesize the evidence on infectious diseases in wars, and (II) model mortality from non-violent causes in the Gaza conflict as a contemporary case study illustrating the general concepts identified in the review. The scientific literature highlights drivers altering the epidemiology of several directly transmitted and vector-borne pathogens affecting general population, militaries or refugees in armed conflicts. On the other hand, we also performed a temporal prediction of deaths from non-violent causes during the armed conflict that began in Gaza in October 2023. The predictive analysis evidenced good predictability for the short- and medium-term (&lt; 3 months), but with relevant limitations for long-term predictions. Our results emphasize the historical and contemporary role of infectious diseases in war ecosystems, which require active monitoring to know and predict accurately the number of non-violent deaths during armed conflicts. The implementation of surveillance strategies during and after war are important measures for establishing prevention and control measures to limit the impact of zoonoses on human population.</p>

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The role of infectious diseases and non-violent mortality prediction in armed conflicts

  • Clara Muñoz-Hernández,
  • Moisés Gonzálvez

摘要

Armed conflicts cause devastating consequences not only socially and environmentally, but also for human health. This study aimed to (I) synthesize the evidence on infectious diseases in wars, and (II) model mortality from non-violent causes in the Gaza conflict as a contemporary case study illustrating the general concepts identified in the review. The scientific literature highlights drivers altering the epidemiology of several directly transmitted and vector-borne pathogens affecting general population, militaries or refugees in armed conflicts. On the other hand, we also performed a temporal prediction of deaths from non-violent causes during the armed conflict that began in Gaza in October 2023. The predictive analysis evidenced good predictability for the short- and medium-term (< 3 months), but with relevant limitations for long-term predictions. Our results emphasize the historical and contemporary role of infectious diseases in war ecosystems, which require active monitoring to know and predict accurately the number of non-violent deaths during armed conflicts. The implementation of surveillance strategies during and after war are important measures for establishing prevention and control measures to limit the impact of zoonoses on human population.