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<p>The Kashmir Valley in the north-western Himalaya, recently reclassified into Seismic Zone VI, faces a severe and compounded earthquake risk, driven by intense tectonic compression from the ongoing India-Eurasia collision. Its location within the prominent Kashmir seismic gap, where significant strain has accumulated over centuries, indicates a high potential for a major, destructive earthquake. This natural hazard is critically amplified by local geological and socio-economic vulnerabilities, including thick, liquefiable sediments, rapid unplanned urbanisation, and a prevalence of non-engineered construction. This review synthesises geodetic, seismological, and geological data to evaluate the region’s seismic hazard and disaster risk. Geodetic measurements confirm high rates of crustal shortening, while historical and contemporary seismicity reveal a pattern of persistent stress accumulation. The study concludes that the convergence of high seismic potential with acute physical and social vulnerability creates a scenario for a widespread catastrophe. To mitigate this risk, the study advocates for an integrated disaster risk reduction strategy. Key recommendations include the urgent development and implementation of an Himalayan Earthquake Early Warning System (HEEWS), stringent enforcement of seismic building codes, including the retrofitting of critical infrastructure, and the revitalisation of proven traditional construction techniques like Taq and Dhajji Dewari. Furthermore, success hinges on translating seismic micro-zonation maps into community (at ward/panchayat level) awareness programs and strengthening institutional training capacities. Proactive, multi-tiered governmental policies are essential to build resilience and safeguard the sustainable development of the region.</p>

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Looming seismic threat: a comprehensive review of earthquake hazard in the Kashmir Valley, North-western Himalaya, India

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月21日

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  • Waseem Qader,
  • Irfan Maqbool Bhat,
  • Mehran Qurashi

摘要

The Kashmir Valley in the north-western Himalaya, recently reclassified into Seismic Zone VI, faces a severe and compounded earthquake risk, driven by intense tectonic compression from the ongoing India-Eurasia collision. Its location within the prominent Kashmir seismic gap, where significant strain has accumulated over centuries, indicates a high potential for a major, destructive earthquake. This natural hazard is critically amplified by local geological and socio-economic vulnerabilities, including thick, liquefiable sediments, rapid unplanned urbanisation, and a prevalence of non-engineered construction. This review synthesises geodetic, seismological, and geological data to evaluate the region’s seismic hazard and disaster risk. Geodetic measurements confirm high rates of crustal shortening, while historical and contemporary seismicity reveal a pattern of persistent stress accumulation. The study concludes that the convergence of high seismic potential with acute physical and social vulnerability creates a scenario for a widespread catastrophe. To mitigate this risk, the study advocates for an integrated disaster risk reduction strategy. Key recommendations include the urgent development and implementation of an Himalayan Earthquake Early Warning System (HEEWS), stringent enforcement of seismic building codes, including the retrofitting of critical infrastructure, and the revitalisation of proven traditional construction techniques like Taq and Dhajji Dewari. Furthermore, success hinges on translating seismic micro-zonation maps into community (at ward/panchayat level) awareness programs and strengthening institutional training capacities. Proactive, multi-tiered governmental policies are essential to build resilience and safeguard the sustainable development of the region.