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<p>This study examines rainfall trends and monsoon dynamics over Telangana, India, using high-resolution daily rainfall data from the India Meteorological Department for the period 1991–2020. We focus on the southwest monsoon season (June–September) and analyze variations in total rainfall, rainy days, and rainfall intensity across three decades. Additionally, atmospheric variables such as soil moisture, solar radiation, wind components, and pressure data from the ERA-5 reanalysis dataset were utilized to explore the drivers of these changes. Our findings reveal significant spatial variability in monsoon rainfall, with the northeastern and central regions of Telangana experiencing higher precipitation. There is a noticeable increase in the number of rainy days and the frequency of heavy rainfall events in the most recent decade (2011–2020). This uptick in rainfall intensity is attributed to factors such as enhanced soil moisture, stronger south-westerly monsoon winds, and favourable atmospheric conditions, which have intensified precipitation during the monsoon. Further analysis of wind patterns at 850&#xa0;hPa and velocity potential at 200&#xa0;hPa indicates significant shifts in atmospheric circulation. Strengthened monsoon winds and increased upper-level divergence were observed in recent years, suggesting a response to global warming and the influence of climate models like the Indian Ocean Dipole and El Niño-Southern Oscillation. The study concludes that Telangana is witnessing an overall increase in rainfall, particularly in its northern and eastern districts, along with a rise in extreme rainfall events. These changes present challenges for water resource management and agriculture, underscoring the need for adaptive strategies to cope with shifting monsoon patterns in a warming climate.</p>

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Rainfall in Telangana (India): a decadal trend analysis

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年5月9日

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  • Kavitha Chandu,
  • A. Dharma Raju,
  • S. V. J. Kumar,
  • G. Ch Satyanarayana,
  • Madhavaprasad Dasari

摘要

This study examines rainfall trends and monsoon dynamics over Telangana, India, using high-resolution daily rainfall data from the India Meteorological Department for the period 1991–2020. We focus on the southwest monsoon season (June–September) and analyze variations in total rainfall, rainy days, and rainfall intensity across three decades. Additionally, atmospheric variables such as soil moisture, solar radiation, wind components, and pressure data from the ERA-5 reanalysis dataset were utilized to explore the drivers of these changes. Our findings reveal significant spatial variability in monsoon rainfall, with the northeastern and central regions of Telangana experiencing higher precipitation. There is a noticeable increase in the number of rainy days and the frequency of heavy rainfall events in the most recent decade (2011–2020). This uptick in rainfall intensity is attributed to factors such as enhanced soil moisture, stronger south-westerly monsoon winds, and favourable atmospheric conditions, which have intensified precipitation during the monsoon. Further analysis of wind patterns at 850 hPa and velocity potential at 200 hPa indicates significant shifts in atmospheric circulation. Strengthened monsoon winds and increased upper-level divergence were observed in recent years, suggesting a response to global warming and the influence of climate models like the Indian Ocean Dipole and El Niño-Southern Oscillation. The study concludes that Telangana is witnessing an overall increase in rainfall, particularly in its northern and eastern districts, along with a rise in extreme rainfall events. These changes present challenges for water resource management and agriculture, underscoring the need for adaptive strategies to cope with shifting monsoon patterns in a warming climate.