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<p>The first arrival dates of four bird species (rough-legged buzzard (<i>Buteo lagopus</i>), Bohemian waxwing (<i>Bombycilla garrulus</i>), Eurasian bullfinch (<i>Pyrrhula pyrrhula</i>) and common redpoll (<i>Carduelis flammea</i>) that overwinter (“winter guests”) in the Tatarstan Republic of Russia were monitored for the 33-year period from 1991 to 2023. Trends in first arrival date in autumn were evaluated using regression against year. Relationships between first arrival dates and breeding season temperature (May-August) from more northern locations were also assessed using regression. Three out of four bird species arrived in Tatarstan significantly earlier in autumn during 1991–2023. We did not detect any significant relationships between the first arrival dates of birds and their food supply (autumn estimates in Tatarstan of small mammals and of seed resources) or autumn (September-October) temperature. However, we found a strong relationship between earlier first arrival dates of these species. Our results highlight a climate-driven early arrived in autumn across several species and its association with positive anomalies in summer temperature in the high latitudes. We emphasizing the importance of conducting multispecies studies when investigating responses to climate change.</p>

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Shifts of autumn phenology of “winter guest” birds in deep Eurasia are associated with climate change

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月27日

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  • Arthur Askeyev,
  • Oleg Askeyev,
  • Igor Askeyev,
  • Tim H. Sparks

摘要

The first arrival dates of four bird species (rough-legged buzzard (Buteo lagopus), Bohemian waxwing (Bombycilla garrulus), Eurasian bullfinch (Pyrrhula pyrrhula) and common redpoll (Carduelis flammea) that overwinter (“winter guests”) in the Tatarstan Republic of Russia were monitored for the 33-year period from 1991 to 2023. Trends in first arrival date in autumn were evaluated using regression against year. Relationships between first arrival dates and breeding season temperature (May-August) from more northern locations were also assessed using regression. Three out of four bird species arrived in Tatarstan significantly earlier in autumn during 1991–2023. We did not detect any significant relationships between the first arrival dates of birds and their food supply (autumn estimates in Tatarstan of small mammals and of seed resources) or autumn (September-October) temperature. However, we found a strong relationship between earlier first arrival dates of these species. Our results highlight a climate-driven early arrived in autumn across several species and its association with positive anomalies in summer temperature in the high latitudes. We emphasizing the importance of conducting multispecies studies when investigating responses to climate change.