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<p>Thermal conditions are a key determinant of coastal tourism sustainability in Muğla, one of Türkiye’s leading marine tourism destinations. This study integrates Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)-derived Land Surface Temperature (LST) and Sea Surface Temperature (SST) observations (2000–2025) with Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) historical simulations (1850–2014) and future projections (2015–2100) under Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP) 1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios to provide a continuous thermal assessment from the pre-industrial era to the end of the 21st century. Seasonal analyses reveal strong land–sea contrasts. In summer, maximum LST reaches 43.09&#xa0;°C, while SST remains lower at 39.38&#xa0;°C. In winter, coastal LST averages 16.19&#xa0;°C, whereas inland areas drop to − 7&#xa0;°C. Trend analysis shows significant asymmetric warming. Nighttime LST increases at + 0.0585&#xa0;°C/year (<i>p</i> = 0.0001), corresponding to approximately 1.4–1.5&#xa0;°C over 25 years, while daytime LST exhibits a weak and statistically insignificant trend (− 0.0118&#xa0;°C/year; <i>p</i> &gt; 0.05). Similarly, nighttime SST increases significantly by 0.0528&#xa0;°C/year (<i>p</i> = 0.0006), whereas daytime SST shows no significant trend. Under the high-emission SSP5-8.5 scenario, maximum, minimum, and mean air temperatures increase at + 0.057&#xa0;°C/year, + 0.048&#xa0;°C/year, and + 0.051&#xa0;°C/year, respectively (all <i>p</i> &lt; 0.001), indicating accelerated warming throughout the 21st century. Pettitt change-point analysis identifies a statistically significant regime shift around 2058–2059 under SSP5-8.5 (<i>p</i> = 0.000), whereas no significant break is detected in the historical period. Future projections indicate that warming will continue under both emission scenarios. While temperature increases in the SSP1-2.6 scenario remain relatively limited throughout the 21st century, the SSP5-8.5 scenario leads to much more intense warming and a significant shift in the thermal regime around 2058–2059. Overall, the results demonstrate intensified nocturnal warming, reduced diurnal temperature range (DTR), and a potential post-2055 transition in thermal regimes, with critical implications for heat stress, tourism season length, and climate adaptation planning in Mediterranean coastal regions.</p>

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Thermal evolution (1850–2100) of a Mediterranean coastal tourism hotspot: insights from Muğla region, Türkiye

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月10日

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  • Mehmet Ali Çelik,
  • Adile Bilik

摘要

Thermal conditions are a key determinant of coastal tourism sustainability in Muğla, one of Türkiye’s leading marine tourism destinations. This study integrates Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)-derived Land Surface Temperature (LST) and Sea Surface Temperature (SST) observations (2000–2025) with Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) historical simulations (1850–2014) and future projections (2015–2100) under Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP) 1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios to provide a continuous thermal assessment from the pre-industrial era to the end of the 21st century. Seasonal analyses reveal strong land–sea contrasts. In summer, maximum LST reaches 43.09 °C, while SST remains lower at 39.38 °C. In winter, coastal LST averages 16.19 °C, whereas inland areas drop to − 7 °C. Trend analysis shows significant asymmetric warming. Nighttime LST increases at + 0.0585 °C/year (p = 0.0001), corresponding to approximately 1.4–1.5 °C over 25 years, while daytime LST exhibits a weak and statistically insignificant trend (− 0.0118 °C/year; p > 0.05). Similarly, nighttime SST increases significantly by 0.0528 °C/year (p = 0.0006), whereas daytime SST shows no significant trend. Under the high-emission SSP5-8.5 scenario, maximum, minimum, and mean air temperatures increase at + 0.057 °C/year, + 0.048 °C/year, and + 0.051 °C/year, respectively (all p < 0.001), indicating accelerated warming throughout the 21st century. Pettitt change-point analysis identifies a statistically significant regime shift around 2058–2059 under SSP5-8.5 (p = 0.000), whereas no significant break is detected in the historical period. Future projections indicate that warming will continue under both emission scenarios. While temperature increases in the SSP1-2.6 scenario remain relatively limited throughout the 21st century, the SSP5-8.5 scenario leads to much more intense warming and a significant shift in the thermal regime around 2058–2059. Overall, the results demonstrate intensified nocturnal warming, reduced diurnal temperature range (DTR), and a potential post-2055 transition in thermal regimes, with critical implications for heat stress, tourism season length, and climate adaptation planning in Mediterranean coastal regions.