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<p>Mediterranean coastal areas are experiencing accelerating land use/land cover (LULC) change driven by climate change and anthropogenic pressures, particularly tourism development. This study quantifies (i) contemporary (2016–2023) LULC change for Pag Island and, in greater detail, for the (ii) Town of Novalja using: (i) a reference cadaster of changes mapped from <i>Google Earth Pro</i> historical imagery and (ii) interval LULC models (2016, 2023) produced from 3-m <i>PlanetScope</i> imagery with a GEOBIA workflow and support vector machine classification for. Spatiotemporal LULC change for the Novalja was derived using the <i>Semi-Automatic Classification Plugin</i> (SCP). The classification accuracy of the 2016 and 2023 LULC models was assessed using confusion matrices. LULC change typology was defined based on literature analysis, landscape heterogeneity, and resolution of the input data. Based on the reference cadaster, the Town of Novalja had the highest number of detected changes on Pag Island. Automated change detection for Novalja showed second-stage vegetation succession as the most extensive typology after stagnation, whereas urbanization was spatially concentrated but areally limited. Interpretation of vegetation succession requires caution due to phenology, class spectral similarity, shadows, and spectral non-uniformity across PlanetScope images. Overall, the results indicate active landscape dynamics throughout the Town of Novalja. The findings provide the first high-resolution account of recent LULC change on Pag Island, document concentrated campsite-related development pressures, and offer a replicable workflow for a similar environment. It demonstrates <i>PlanetScope’s</i> utility for monitoring rapid, tourism-driven LULC changes while highlighting limitations in detecting vegetation changes. Findings highlight the need for integrated monitoring to support spatial planning in Mediterranean coastal zones and contribute to broader discussions on balancing tourism development in sensitive karst landscapes.</p>

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Contemporary land use/land cover changes on Pag Island (Croatia): a tourism-driven transformation

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年12月16日

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  • Ivan Golubičić,
  • Ivan Marić,
  • Fran Domazetović

摘要

Mediterranean coastal areas are experiencing accelerating land use/land cover (LULC) change driven by climate change and anthropogenic pressures, particularly tourism development. This study quantifies (i) contemporary (2016–2023) LULC change for Pag Island and, in greater detail, for the (ii) Town of Novalja using: (i) a reference cadaster of changes mapped from Google Earth Pro historical imagery and (ii) interval LULC models (2016, 2023) produced from 3-m PlanetScope imagery with a GEOBIA workflow and support vector machine classification for. Spatiotemporal LULC change for the Novalja was derived using the Semi-Automatic Classification Plugin (SCP). The classification accuracy of the 2016 and 2023 LULC models was assessed using confusion matrices. LULC change typology was defined based on literature analysis, landscape heterogeneity, and resolution of the input data. Based on the reference cadaster, the Town of Novalja had the highest number of detected changes on Pag Island. Automated change detection for Novalja showed second-stage vegetation succession as the most extensive typology after stagnation, whereas urbanization was spatially concentrated but areally limited. Interpretation of vegetation succession requires caution due to phenology, class spectral similarity, shadows, and spectral non-uniformity across PlanetScope images. Overall, the results indicate active landscape dynamics throughout the Town of Novalja. The findings provide the first high-resolution account of recent LULC change on Pag Island, document concentrated campsite-related development pressures, and offer a replicable workflow for a similar environment. It demonstrates PlanetScope’s utility for monitoring rapid, tourism-driven LULC changes while highlighting limitations in detecting vegetation changes. Findings highlight the need for integrated monitoring to support spatial planning in Mediterranean coastal zones and contribute to broader discussions on balancing tourism development in sensitive karst landscapes.