Urban and coastal erosion in the mediterranean through a chronological analysis of shoreline change: the case of al Hoceima beaches
摘要
We quantify four decades of shoreline dynamics (1984–2024) along the pocket-beach system of Al Hoceima in Morocco (Quimado, Calabonita–Matadero, Sabadia; 1.94 km; 187 transects) using Landsat 5/7/9 time series, a GIS workflow (ArcGIS), and the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS). End Point Rate (EPR) and Linear Regression Rate (LRR) show erosion dominance (66% of transects), with a coastwide mean of − 0.10 m·yr−1. Sabadia concentrates the signal: a continuous retreat corridor peaks at − 0.80 m·yr−1, mean change is − 0.11 m·yr−1, and short accretion cells reach + 0.42 m·yr−1. Quimado is near-stable ( ≈ − 0.10 m·yr−1), while Calabonita and Matadero display low-magnitude variability (− 0.01 and + 0.03 m·yr−1, respectively; local extremes − 0.13 to + 0.28 m·yr−1). Uncertainty is spatially clustered: LSE peaks approach ~ 7 m in Sabadia’s dynamic core and remain mostly < 2 m elsewhere. Cross-method consistency is high (EPR = 0.002–0.003 + 1.004–1.012×LRR; R2 = 0.968–0.992), indicating negligible offset and near-unity slopes. A comparison of shoreline area changes between 1984 and 2024 indicates ~ 0.23 ha of accretion versus ~ 1.01 ha of erosion (net − 0.79 ha), confirming Sabadia as the priority coastal reach for risk reduction. Implications are direct for resilience and urban development: enforce setback lines and erosion-hazard overlays, prioritize soft-engineering and nature-based measures, and institutionalize community monitoring through repeatable satellite analytics. These findings provide a framework for integrating shoreline monitoring with coastal policy and adaptive management in Mediterranean settings.