<p>Handball is a highly dynamic and complex team sport, characterised by continuous player interactions, rapid transitions between attack and defence, and frequent decision-making under pressure. These factors create significant challenges for formal tactical modelling and performance analysis, as highlighted in previous systematic reviews of match analysis and action sequence complexity in handball. Unlike more discretised sports like baseball or even football, handball’s fluidity demands advanced methods to capture and simulate strategic behaviours effectively. This study investigates a novel approach for analysing handball tactical sequences by applying Probabilistic Model Checking to model player actions, decisions, and outcomes. Using Markov Decision Processes and the Process Analysis Toolkit, we construct probabilistic simulations of handball attacks to evaluate how incremental improvements in player performance—such as passing accuracy, shooting effectiveness, or decision timing—impact overall team success rates.</p>