<p>Crime prediction has become an important challenge in modern cities wanting to enhance public safety and law enforcement. Analyzing crime patterns provides us a valuable insight on criminal behaviour and supports the efforts made for crime prevention. This study tackles the challenge of accurately classifying and forecasting criminal activities using machine learning methods. By examining spatial and time-based crime patterns, this study helps in identifying high-risk zones and predict future incidents based on key attributes such as location, time, seasonal crimes and other crime categories. Utilizing the publicly available Chicago crime dataset from Kaggle that includes a huge amount of city-level incident records, the study develops an integrated prediction framework combining Support Vector Machine (SVM) for crime classification and XGBoost for predictive analysis. To handle data imbalance, the Synthetic Minority Over-sampling Technique (SMOTE) is applied, improving the model’s ability to learn minority crime classes effectively. Experimental evaluation shows that XGBoost achieves a high prediction accuracy of 97.3%, significantly outperforming SVM, which attains 53.2% accuracy. The results confirm that the combined use of SVM and XGBoost provides a reliable and scalable solution for crime prediction.</p>

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A Machine Learning Approach for Crime Classification and Prediction

  • Sanjit Kumar Dash,
  • Surajit Mohanty,
  • Saswat Choudhury,
  • Aanchal Mohanty,
  • Pulak Ranjan Mohanty,
  • Biranchi Kumar Nayak

摘要

Crime prediction has become an important challenge in modern cities wanting to enhance public safety and law enforcement. Analyzing crime patterns provides us a valuable insight on criminal behaviour and supports the efforts made for crime prevention. This study tackles the challenge of accurately classifying and forecasting criminal activities using machine learning methods. By examining spatial and time-based crime patterns, this study helps in identifying high-risk zones and predict future incidents based on key attributes such as location, time, seasonal crimes and other crime categories. Utilizing the publicly available Chicago crime dataset from Kaggle that includes a huge amount of city-level incident records, the study develops an integrated prediction framework combining Support Vector Machine (SVM) for crime classification and XGBoost for predictive analysis. To handle data imbalance, the Synthetic Minority Over-sampling Technique (SMOTE) is applied, improving the model’s ability to learn minority crime classes effectively. Experimental evaluation shows that XGBoost achieves a high prediction accuracy of 97.3%, significantly outperforming SVM, which attains 53.2% accuracy. The results confirm that the combined use of SVM and XGBoost provides a reliable and scalable solution for crime prediction.