Assessing the sustainability of Moroccan sardine fisheries: a multi-model evaluation of central and southern Atlantic stocks
摘要
The Moroccan sardine stock is keystone species in Morocco’s Atlantic waters, supporting one of the nation’s most economically important fisheries. However, concerns overexploitation and limited stock assessment have hindered sustainable management. This study assessed the status of the central and southern Moroccan sardine stocks from 1995 to 2021 using three complementary data-limited models (CMSY, SPiCT, and LBSPR). Results revealed marked spatial variability and widespread overexploitation, particularly in the southern stock, where biomass remained below 0.3BMSY and fishing mortality exceeded FMSY by more than fivefold. The central stock exhibited a less critical but still vulnerable condition, with biomass fluctuating around 0.5BMSY and fishing mortality near the sustainability threshold. The LBSPR model indicated severe growth overfishing across both regions, with sardines being harvested before reaching maturity (Lc < L50) and a chronically low spawning potential ratio (SPR < 0.3). While CMSY and SPiCT produced comparable estimates of maximum sustainable yield (~ 500–730 kt), they diverged in biological reference points due to structural assumptions, with CMSY provided more stable and precautionary results, whereas SPiCT was more sensitive to data limitations but captured temporal dynamics. The findings underscore the urgent need for management measure such as size-selective fishing practices, reduced fishing effort, and precautionary harvest controls to ensure the sustainability of these ecologically and economically critical fisheries. This study demonstrates the interest of ensemble modelling approaches in data-limited contexts and provides a foundation for evidence-based fisheries management in Morocco.