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<p>Crop–pollinator interactions are vital for sustaining global food production, yet they face growing challenges from climate change. While the role of pollinators, particularly honeybees, in supporting crop yields is widely recognized, there is limited research on how these interactions might evolve under changing climatic conditions in North America. This study seeks to fill this knowledge gap by evaluating potential shifts in honeybee–crop interactions by 2070 under the SSP585 climate change scenario. The analysis identifies regions that are vulnerable to losing pollination services and those likely to experience enhanced interactions. Using species distribution models (SDMs), habitat suitability maps were developed for the western honeybee (<i>Apis mellifera</i>) and 23 pollinator-dependent crops under both current and future climate conditions. Co-occurrence probability maps were generated by integrating these data, enabling a detailed analysis of how interactions are likely to change across North America. The results indicate significant shifts in honeybee–crop interactions due to climate change. Northern regions, such as Canada, are expected to see increased interactions, driven by improved habitat suitability at higher latitudes. In contrast, southern and eastern areas, including parts of Mexico and the USA, are projected to experience declines, leaving these regions more susceptible to the loss of critical pollination services. These findings highlight the uneven effects of climate change on pollination services across North America. While northern areas may benefit from improved conditions, the anticipated declines in the south and east emphasize the urgent need for targeted conservation efforts and adaptive management strategies. Safeguarding pollination networks and ensuring agricultural sustainability will be crucial to mitigating these challenges and maintaining food security in the face of climate change.</p>

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Mapping co-occurrence dynamics between crops and honeybees under climate change in North America

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年7月17日

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  • Ehsan Rahimi,
  • Chuleui Jung

摘要

Crop–pollinator interactions are vital for sustaining global food production, yet they face growing challenges from climate change. While the role of pollinators, particularly honeybees, in supporting crop yields is widely recognized, there is limited research on how these interactions might evolve under changing climatic conditions in North America. This study seeks to fill this knowledge gap by evaluating potential shifts in honeybee–crop interactions by 2070 under the SSP585 climate change scenario. The analysis identifies regions that are vulnerable to losing pollination services and those likely to experience enhanced interactions. Using species distribution models (SDMs), habitat suitability maps were developed for the western honeybee (Apis mellifera) and 23 pollinator-dependent crops under both current and future climate conditions. Co-occurrence probability maps were generated by integrating these data, enabling a detailed analysis of how interactions are likely to change across North America. The results indicate significant shifts in honeybee–crop interactions due to climate change. Northern regions, such as Canada, are expected to see increased interactions, driven by improved habitat suitability at higher latitudes. In contrast, southern and eastern areas, including parts of Mexico and the USA, are projected to experience declines, leaving these regions more susceptible to the loss of critical pollination services. These findings highlight the uneven effects of climate change on pollination services across North America. While northern areas may benefit from improved conditions, the anticipated declines in the south and east emphasize the urgent need for targeted conservation efforts and adaptive management strategies. Safeguarding pollination networks and ensuring agricultural sustainability will be crucial to mitigating these challenges and maintaining food security in the face of climate change.