Economics of climate change adaptation through land use and management
摘要
This paper synthesizes recent economic research on climate change adaptation through land use and land management decisions. Climate change affects land-based activities by altering productivity, prices, and the frequency of natural disturbances, prompting landowners to adjust management practices to maximize land value. We develop a conceptual framework in which landowners choose management systems to maximize the present value of returns, highlighting how climate influences yields, land quality, prices, and disturbance risks. Adaptation occurs when landowners switch to management systems better suited to changing conditions, subject to transition costs. While the value of adaptation arises from these discrete adjustments, uncertainty about future climate creates the possibility of maladaptation. We review empirical strategies used to identify adaptation, including panel data approaches that distinguish short-run weather responses from long-run adjustments and spatial “space-for-time” substitution. Two applications—tree species replanting and prescribed burning—illustrate how adaptation can reshape landscapes, affect ecosystem services, and mitigate wildfire risk. A central insight is that privately optimal adaptation may diverge from socially optimal outcomes due to spatial externalities and public goods. As a result, adaptation may be under- or over-provided, highlighting the need for policies that better align private incentives with social objectives.