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<p><i>Abies spectabilis</i> (D. Don) Spach. is an important indigenous conifer found in the Himalayan Region. Its natural habitat is at risk due to the effects of anthropogenic activity and climate change. It has been placed in the category “near threatened” according to the IUCN Red List. For effective conservation planning, it is necessary to have an accurate distribution of species habitats. Therefore, the present study was conducted in the state of Himachal Pradesh to identify suitable areas for species occurrence and reintroduction under projected climate change. Bioclimatic variables, species occurrence data, and the MaxEnt entropy modeling approach were utilized to identify the suitability model of <i>A. spectabilis</i>. The AUC test (0.917 ± 0.15) and TSS value (0.651) for <i>A. spectabilis</i> indicate the model’s high accuracy. The model’s result indicates that 6.56% of the state is suitable for the occurrence and 2.61% area for the reintroduction of <i>A. spectabilis</i>. The current study used the CMIP6 project’s BCC-CSM2-MR and MIROC6 climate change models to predict the potential distribution area of <i>A. spectabilis</i> in the periods 2021–2040, 2041–2060, 2061–2080 and 2081–2100 under the SSP245 and SSP370 scenarios. The high and very high suitability areas were predicted to shift upward in the high altitudinal range along the boundary of historic habitat in the Kullu, Shimla and Kinnaur valleys. Ex-situ and in-situ conservation strategies can be applied to places with a high potential for species occurrence. For the species to be conserved in the North Western Himalaya, mass production of quality seedlings of the species and their plantation in the potential areas, habitat monitoring, awareness generation and active cooperation from the forest department and other authorities are essential.</p>

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Predicting habitat suitability of Abies spectabilis D. Don. (Spach) for conservation in north–western Himalaya under projected climate change

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年12月24日

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  • P. S. Negi,
  • Shiv Paul,
  • Sandeep Sharma

摘要

Abies spectabilis (D. Don) Spach. is an important indigenous conifer found in the Himalayan Region. Its natural habitat is at risk due to the effects of anthropogenic activity and climate change. It has been placed in the category “near threatened” according to the IUCN Red List. For effective conservation planning, it is necessary to have an accurate distribution of species habitats. Therefore, the present study was conducted in the state of Himachal Pradesh to identify suitable areas for species occurrence and reintroduction under projected climate change. Bioclimatic variables, species occurrence data, and the MaxEnt entropy modeling approach were utilized to identify the suitability model of A. spectabilis. The AUC test (0.917 ± 0.15) and TSS value (0.651) for A. spectabilis indicate the model’s high accuracy. The model’s result indicates that 6.56% of the state is suitable for the occurrence and 2.61% area for the reintroduction of A. spectabilis. The current study used the CMIP6 project’s BCC-CSM2-MR and MIROC6 climate change models to predict the potential distribution area of A. spectabilis in the periods 2021–2040, 2041–2060, 2061–2080 and 2081–2100 under the SSP245 and SSP370 scenarios. The high and very high suitability areas were predicted to shift upward in the high altitudinal range along the boundary of historic habitat in the Kullu, Shimla and Kinnaur valleys. Ex-situ and in-situ conservation strategies can be applied to places with a high potential for species occurrence. For the species to be conserved in the North Western Himalaya, mass production of quality seedlings of the species and their plantation in the potential areas, habitat monitoring, awareness generation and active cooperation from the forest department and other authorities are essential.