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<p>The escalating India–Pakistan conflict and its associated transport disruptions have intensified the need to examine how geopolitical shocks affect national economies and export competitiveness, particularly for sectors integrated into global value chains. To address this, the study develops a mathematical framework combining Input–Output Modelling (IOM) with Interval Programming (IP) to simulate the cascading effects of disruptions across inland, water, and air transport modes. Using the Inoperability Input–Output Model (IIOM), grounded in Leontief’s theory, the research traces direct and indirect impacts, quantifies sectoral interdependencies, and accounts for uncertainty through scenario-based simulations. The findings reveal that while sectors such as textiles, pharmaceuticals, and electronics suffer significant economic losses, others display high inoperability despite lower immediate losses, exposing critical dependencies within India’s production and trade networks. These insights highlight that the fragility of operational systems is uneven, with certain industries disproportionately reliant on vulnerable transport corridors. The study’s implications extend to policymakers and industry leaders, emphasizing the integration of resilience-building measures, such as transport mode diversification, redundancy in logistics, and strengthening digital infrastructure, into strategies for sustaining operational excellence. The research provides a decision-support framework to safeguard export performance under future geopolitical uncertainties by aligning transport resilience with long-term competitiveness.</p>

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Geopolitical Shocks and Export Fragility: An Input–Output Analysis of Transport Sector Vulnerabilities Amidst the India–Pakistan Conflict

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月23日

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  • Bishal Dey Sarkar,
  • Monica Shukla,
  • Laxmi Gupta,
  • Indranil Roy Chowdhury

摘要

The escalating India–Pakistan conflict and its associated transport disruptions have intensified the need to examine how geopolitical shocks affect national economies and export competitiveness, particularly for sectors integrated into global value chains. To address this, the study develops a mathematical framework combining Input–Output Modelling (IOM) with Interval Programming (IP) to simulate the cascading effects of disruptions across inland, water, and air transport modes. Using the Inoperability Input–Output Model (IIOM), grounded in Leontief’s theory, the research traces direct and indirect impacts, quantifies sectoral interdependencies, and accounts for uncertainty through scenario-based simulations. The findings reveal that while sectors such as textiles, pharmaceuticals, and electronics suffer significant economic losses, others display high inoperability despite lower immediate losses, exposing critical dependencies within India’s production and trade networks. These insights highlight that the fragility of operational systems is uneven, with certain industries disproportionately reliant on vulnerable transport corridors. The study’s implications extend to policymakers and industry leaders, emphasizing the integration of resilience-building measures, such as transport mode diversification, redundancy in logistics, and strengthening digital infrastructure, into strategies for sustaining operational excellence. The research provides a decision-support framework to safeguard export performance under future geopolitical uncertainties by aligning transport resilience with long-term competitiveness.