<p>In early July 2024 (7–8 July), northwest Uttar Pradesh and the adjoining southeast Uttarakhand region experienced an episode of exceptionally heavy rainfall, with 24-hour accumulations exceeding 400 mm at a few stations. In Uttar Pradesh, nearly 34,730 people across 53 villages in three districts were affected. During the same period in Uttarakhand, one landslide and two flash-flood events were reported on 8 July, damaging 63 houses. The districts of Champawat and Udham Singh Nagar were particularly impacted by flooding. The present study analyzes the meteorological setting of this event, its associated impacts, and the performance of forecasts and warnings issued by the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The prevailing meteorological conditions comprised an upper-air cyclonic circulation over southwest Uttar Pradesh &amp; adjoining northeast Rajasthan, an upper air trough extending to the northeast Arabian Sea, and interaction between mid-tropospheric westerlies associated with a western disturbance and low-level monsoonal easterlies. The monsoon trough at mean sea level, which is an important semipermanent system positioned close to its climatological normal, provided additional support for deep convection. Satellite observations, particularly from INSAT-3D/3DR, were instrumental in monitoring and diagnosing the event, revealing intense convective activity and high rain rates over the study area. The comparison of observatory rainfall with reanalysis data from the Fifth-Generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Atmospheric Reanalysis (ERA5), the Indian Monsoon Data Assimilation and Analysis reanalysis (IMDAA), the Daily Merged Satellite–Gauge Rainfall (GPM) product, and the Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (IMERG) showed that GPM data was the best estimate. Importantly, the episode was anticipated well in advance: IMD issued quantitative precipitation forecasts and impact-based warnings with a lead time of three to five days.</p>

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Case study on exceptionally heavy rainfall episode over Northwest Uttar Pradesh & adjoining Uttarakhand (India) during Monsoon 2024

  • Shashi Kant,
  • Rizwan Ahmed,
  • Naveen Kumar,
  • Ram Singh Yadav,
  • Rohit Thapliyal,
  • R. K. Jenamani

摘要

In early July 2024 (7–8 July), northwest Uttar Pradesh and the adjoining southeast Uttarakhand region experienced an episode of exceptionally heavy rainfall, with 24-hour accumulations exceeding 400 mm at a few stations. In Uttar Pradesh, nearly 34,730 people across 53 villages in three districts were affected. During the same period in Uttarakhand, one landslide and two flash-flood events were reported on 8 July, damaging 63 houses. The districts of Champawat and Udham Singh Nagar were particularly impacted by flooding. The present study analyzes the meteorological setting of this event, its associated impacts, and the performance of forecasts and warnings issued by the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The prevailing meteorological conditions comprised an upper-air cyclonic circulation over southwest Uttar Pradesh & adjoining northeast Rajasthan, an upper air trough extending to the northeast Arabian Sea, and interaction between mid-tropospheric westerlies associated with a western disturbance and low-level monsoonal easterlies. The monsoon trough at mean sea level, which is an important semipermanent system positioned close to its climatological normal, provided additional support for deep convection. Satellite observations, particularly from INSAT-3D/3DR, were instrumental in monitoring and diagnosing the event, revealing intense convective activity and high rain rates over the study area. The comparison of observatory rainfall with reanalysis data from the Fifth-Generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Atmospheric Reanalysis (ERA5), the Indian Monsoon Data Assimilation and Analysis reanalysis (IMDAA), the Daily Merged Satellite–Gauge Rainfall (GPM) product, and the Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (IMERG) showed that GPM data was the best estimate. Importantly, the episode was anticipated well in advance: IMD issued quantitative precipitation forecasts and impact-based warnings with a lead time of three to five days.