An Optimal Planning Method for High Renewable Energy Penetration Isolated Microgrid Considering the Extreme Weather Events
摘要
High renewable energy penetration isolated microgrid is beneficial for improving the economics of high energy consuming production while alleviating the climate issues. However, extreme weather (EW) has posed great risks to power supply reliability of high renewable energy penetration isolated microgrid. Incorporating the adverse effects of EW into planning stage of high renewable energy penetration isolated microgrid is critical for improving the power supply reliability and balancing costs with resilience improvement. An optimal planning method is proposed in this paper for high renewable energy penetration isolated microgrid considering multiple EW events. Extreme weather event scenarios are innovatively constructed according to extreme weather historical statistics to capture their characteristic. Seasonal fluctuation scenarios of renewable generators are obtained by Latin hypercube sampling method. The final scenario set is integrated through conditional probability theory. Conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) method is introduced into the planning model to quantify the tail risk of power imbalance induced by EW. Besides, the relationship between costs and resilience enhancement is evaluated to provide insights into the trade-off between economic investment and system reliability in resilience-oriented planning. Case study results indicates that the proposed method achieves reliable planning results considering the impact of EW events.