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<p>The insulation failure mechanism of cables that have been in service for more than 15&#xa0;years has shifted from random failures to insulation aging. As a result, the incidence of insulation-related failures in its body or accessories typically exceeds 60%, making these cables a critical focus in transmission and distribution maintenance operations. However, only the initial usage time of these cable can be obtained, and it is impossible to determine how long it can continue to function normally. Therefore, there is an urgent need for accurate forecasts of its insulation lifespan. This paper analyzes the cumulative pattern of electrical damage in crosslinked polyethylene insulation and, establishes a residual insulation damage model (RID model) for operating cables. A method for determining the remaining lifespan of these cables using the RID model has been designed. Experimental verification of the RID model and above method predicted a remaining lifespan of 1,710,256,581&#xa0;s. After accelerated lifespan testing, the predicted remaining lifespan for the same type of samples was 1,794,922,726&#xa0;s, with a deviation of 4.9%. This indicates that the RID model provides a highly accurate forecasts of the remaining lifespan for cables that have reached the mid to late stages of operation.</p>

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An Approach to Forecast the Remaining Lifespan of Cables During the Operational Middle and Late Phases Using Residual Insulation Damage Model

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年2月8日

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  • Yu Huang,
  • Jiang-Tao Xiao,
  • Wen-Feng Qu,
  • Zhao-Chuang Zhang,
  • Jun Ma,
  • Zhong-Qiu Cun,
  • Qiang Shu,
  • Xun Zhang

摘要

The insulation failure mechanism of cables that have been in service for more than 15 years has shifted from random failures to insulation aging. As a result, the incidence of insulation-related failures in its body or accessories typically exceeds 60%, making these cables a critical focus in transmission and distribution maintenance operations. However, only the initial usage time of these cable can be obtained, and it is impossible to determine how long it can continue to function normally. Therefore, there is an urgent need for accurate forecasts of its insulation lifespan. This paper analyzes the cumulative pattern of electrical damage in crosslinked polyethylene insulation and, establishes a residual insulation damage model (RID model) for operating cables. A method for determining the remaining lifespan of these cables using the RID model has been designed. Experimental verification of the RID model and above method predicted a remaining lifespan of 1,710,256,581 s. After accelerated lifespan testing, the predicted remaining lifespan for the same type of samples was 1,794,922,726 s, with a deviation of 4.9%. This indicates that the RID model provides a highly accurate forecasts of the remaining lifespan for cables that have reached the mid to late stages of operation.