<p>The rusty grain beetle (<i>Cryptolestes ferrugineus</i>) is a major stored-grain pest in China, causing severe losses and posing significant challenges for control. Predicting its potential distribution is essential for optimizing monitoring and management strategies. Herein, we integrated occurrence records of <i>C. ferrugineus</i> with current climate data and projections for three future periods (2041–2060, 2061–2080, and 2081–2100). Species distribution modeling was conducted using MaxEnt in combination with ArcGIS. The most influential environmental factors shaping the distribution of <i>C. ferrugineus</i> were altitude, minimum temperature in August (Tmin8), precipitation in November (Prec11), minimum temperature in February (Tmin2), precipitation seasonality (Bio15), and mean diurnal range (Bio2). Under current climatic conditions, suitable areas covered 481.06 × 10⁴ km², accounting for 49.23% of China’s land area. Highly and moderately suitable regions (144.30 × 10⁴ km²) were primarily concentrated in the North China Plain, the middle-lower Yangtze River Plain, the southeastern coastal and South China. Under future climatic scenarios, large portions of the North China Plain regions are projected to shift from suitable habitat, with the centroid of suitability gradually moving southeast ward. This suggests that the poor and moderate suitable area of <i>C. ferrugineus</i> may increase to high suitable area under climate change. Priority should therefore be given to surveillance and control in the North China Plain, Yangtze River Plain, southeastern coastal areas and South China. This study is the first to survey the concrete distribution-point of <i>C. ferrugineus</i> in China and utilize the data to predict the distribution of suitable area and the key environmental variables, it provides a foundation for risk assessment, monitoring, early warning, and targeted control strategies for <i>C. ferrugineus</i> in China.</p>