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<p>This article develops an institutional cross phase approach to verification for the prevention of an arms race in outer space, designed to move negotiations beyond a&#xa0;recurring impasse. Deadlock persists partly because, in contemporary multilateral negotiations, verification is still widely judged through an inherited single stage mode of assessment that is ill-suited to space. Procedurally, it treats verification as a&#xa0;one-time hurdle at treaty conclusion; substantively, it assumes static, classifiable objects, bounded facilities, feasible access, and fixed evidentiary thresholds, misaligned with a&#xa0;dynamic, dual-use orbital environment. To address this mismatch, the article advances the ABC × PT hexagon, a&#xa0;process-oriented framework that integrates temporal staging with political and technical attributes and treats verification as a&#xa0;trajectory rather than a&#xa0;post-treaty checkpoint. When Stages&#xa0;A (negotiation and agenda-setting), B (implementation and monitoring), and C (dispute resolution and enforcement) are aligned with political consent and technical capability, they yield six analytical cells (A–P, A–T, B–P, B–T, C–P, C–T) that organize recurring disputes over trust and sequencing, definitions, sovereignty and transparency boundaries, monitoring limits, irreversibility, and the legally binding versus voluntary divide. Mapping the United States, China, Russia, and Europe onto the hexagon clarifies why preferences cluster and negotiations stall. Three indicative sequences illustrate how cooperation can scale across phases: technical entry, iterative buffering, and dispute-triggered forensic feedback. To find a&#xa0;greatest common denominator for progress, verification should be treated not as an all-or-nothing commitment but as a&#xa0;modular, process-driven mechanism that expands from minimal consensus through practice, helping states move beyond the false choice between perfect verification and no agreement.</p>

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Leaping over the first hurdle: developing a cross-phase process approach for PAROS verification

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月21日

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  • Yue Yuan

摘要

This article develops an institutional cross phase approach to verification for the prevention of an arms race in outer space, designed to move negotiations beyond a recurring impasse. Deadlock persists partly because, in contemporary multilateral negotiations, verification is still widely judged through an inherited single stage mode of assessment that is ill-suited to space. Procedurally, it treats verification as a one-time hurdle at treaty conclusion; substantively, it assumes static, classifiable objects, bounded facilities, feasible access, and fixed evidentiary thresholds, misaligned with a dynamic, dual-use orbital environment. To address this mismatch, the article advances the ABC × PT hexagon, a process-oriented framework that integrates temporal staging with political and technical attributes and treats verification as a trajectory rather than a post-treaty checkpoint. When Stages A (negotiation and agenda-setting), B (implementation and monitoring), and C (dispute resolution and enforcement) are aligned with political consent and technical capability, they yield six analytical cells (A–P, A–T, B–P, B–T, C–P, C–T) that organize recurring disputes over trust and sequencing, definitions, sovereignty and transparency boundaries, monitoring limits, irreversibility, and the legally binding versus voluntary divide. Mapping the United States, China, Russia, and Europe onto the hexagon clarifies why preferences cluster and negotiations stall. Three indicative sequences illustrate how cooperation can scale across phases: technical entry, iterative buffering, and dispute-triggered forensic feedback. To find a greatest common denominator for progress, verification should be treated not as an all-or-nothing commitment but as a modular, process-driven mechanism that expands from minimal consensus through practice, helping states move beyond the false choice between perfect verification and no agreement.