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<p>This study examines the current and future habitat suitability of <i>Zingiber officinale</i> (ginger), an important medicinal plant in Balinese traditional medicine (Usada), using Species Distribution Modeling (SDM). Utilizing occurrence data from herbarium records and local databases, we employed the MaxEnt algorithm with WorldClim 2.1 bioclimatic variables to model current distribution patterns and project future scenarios for 2081–2100 under the UKESM 1-0-LL climate model (ssp585). The models achieved moderate accuracy with AUC values of 0.792 (current) and 0.783 (future). Current projections show that 73.44% of Bali’s area has medium habitat suitability, primarily in central and eastern regions, while only 1.17% exhibits high suitability. Future projections indicate an expansion of suitable areas, with medium suitability increasing to 85.16% and high suitability to 5.08%. Precipitation seasonality emerged as a crucial factor influencing habitat suitability, with stable rainfall patterns favoring species persistence. The species shows increasing sensitivity to precipitation variability in future scenarios, suggesting potential challenges for cultivation. Given the species’ importance in traditional medicine and limited wild populations in Bali, these findings emphasize the need for targeted conservation strategies, particularly through botanical gardens, to preserve genetic diversity and ensure sustainable availability for future generations.</p>

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Habitat suitability model of an usada medicinal plant Zingiber officinale (based on bioclimatic variables) and its conservation in Bali

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月30日

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  • Sutomo,
  • M. Bima Atmaja,
  • M. Hadi Saputra,
  • Hedi Indra Januar,
  • Nida Humaida,
  • Izhamil Hidayah,
  • I. Made Saka Wijaya,
  • Rajif Iryadi,
  • Wieke Herningtyas,
  • Reni Setyo Wahyuningtyas,
  • Eko Pujiono,
  • Aditya Hani,
  • Jalma Giring Sukmawati

摘要

This study examines the current and future habitat suitability of Zingiber officinale (ginger), an important medicinal plant in Balinese traditional medicine (Usada), using Species Distribution Modeling (SDM). Utilizing occurrence data from herbarium records and local databases, we employed the MaxEnt algorithm with WorldClim 2.1 bioclimatic variables to model current distribution patterns and project future scenarios for 2081–2100 under the UKESM 1-0-LL climate model (ssp585). The models achieved moderate accuracy with AUC values of 0.792 (current) and 0.783 (future). Current projections show that 73.44% of Bali’s area has medium habitat suitability, primarily in central and eastern regions, while only 1.17% exhibits high suitability. Future projections indicate an expansion of suitable areas, with medium suitability increasing to 85.16% and high suitability to 5.08%. Precipitation seasonality emerged as a crucial factor influencing habitat suitability, with stable rainfall patterns favoring species persistence. The species shows increasing sensitivity to precipitation variability in future scenarios, suggesting potential challenges for cultivation. Given the species’ importance in traditional medicine and limited wild populations in Bali, these findings emphasize the need for targeted conservation strategies, particularly through botanical gardens, to preserve genetic diversity and ensure sustainable availability for future generations.