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<p>The accelerating adoption of clean energy technologies, especially electric vehicles (EVs) and energy storage systems (ESS), is rapidly increasing demand for lithium-ion batteries (LIBs), raising critical concerns about lithium supply sustainability. Here, we develop a dynamic material flow analysis framework to quantify global lithium flows and stocks from 1991 to 2021 and to project future lithium supply and demand through 2050 under coupled scenarios of EV and ESS expansion, battery cathode transition, battery lifespan extension, recycling improvement, and EV-to-ESS cascade utilization. Our projections show that faster ESS growth will intensify medium-term lithium pressure, while EV-to-ESS cascade utilization can gradually relieve that pressure by substituting for newly manufactured ESS batteries as larger volumes of retired EV batteries. Advancements in LIB technologies, extended battery lifespans, and enhanced recycling can significantly alleviate supply-demand gaps, but under high-demand scenario they remain insufficient, making additional supply-side responses indispensable, especially faster expansion in mining, refining, and lithium chemical conversion. These findings highlight the need to jointly consider EV and ESS development, recycling, second-life use, and coordination of supply chain expansion in long-term lithium planning.</p>

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Surging demand for energy storage systems exacerbates lithium supply challenges in green transition

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月29日

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  • Juan Tan,
  • Xin Ouyang,
  • Shuangjiao Xue,
  • Jakob Kløve Keiding,
  • Louise Witt Sengeløv,
  • Bin Wu,
  • Wu Chen,
  • Gang Liu

摘要

The accelerating adoption of clean energy technologies, especially electric vehicles (EVs) and energy storage systems (ESS), is rapidly increasing demand for lithium-ion batteries (LIBs), raising critical concerns about lithium supply sustainability. Here, we develop a dynamic material flow analysis framework to quantify global lithium flows and stocks from 1991 to 2021 and to project future lithium supply and demand through 2050 under coupled scenarios of EV and ESS expansion, battery cathode transition, battery lifespan extension, recycling improvement, and EV-to-ESS cascade utilization. Our projections show that faster ESS growth will intensify medium-term lithium pressure, while EV-to-ESS cascade utilization can gradually relieve that pressure by substituting for newly manufactured ESS batteries as larger volumes of retired EV batteries. Advancements in LIB technologies, extended battery lifespans, and enhanced recycling can significantly alleviate supply-demand gaps, but under high-demand scenario they remain insufficient, making additional supply-side responses indispensable, especially faster expansion in mining, refining, and lithium chemical conversion. These findings highlight the need to jointly consider EV and ESS development, recycling, second-life use, and coordination of supply chain expansion in long-term lithium planning.