<p>Suppose <InlineEquation ID="IEq1"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(Y_1,\dots ,Y_n\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mrow> <msub> <mi>Y</mi> <mn>1</mn> </msub> <mo>,</mo> <mo>⋯</mo> <mo>,</mo> <msub> <mi>Y</mi> <mi>n</mi> </msub> </mrow> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation> are observations from an AR(<i>p</i>) process with mean <InlineEquation ID="IEq2"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(\mu \)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mi>μ</mi> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation>, e.g., <InlineEquation ID="IEq3"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(Y_t=\mu +\phi _1(Y_{t-1}-\mu )+\cdots +\phi _p(Y_{t-p}-\mu )+Z_t\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mrow> <msub> <mi>Y</mi> <mi>t</mi> </msub> <mo>=</mo> <mi>μ</mi> <mo>+</mo> <msub> <mi>ϕ</mi> <mn>1</mn> </msub> <mrow> <mo stretchy="false">(</mo> <msub> <mi>Y</mi> <mrow> <mi>t</mi> <mo>-</mo> <mn>1</mn> </mrow> </msub> <mo>-</mo> <mi>μ</mi> <mo stretchy="false">)</mo> </mrow> <mo>+</mo> <mo>⋯</mo> <mo>+</mo> <msub> <mi>ϕ</mi> <mi>p</mi> </msub> <mrow> <mo stretchy="false">(</mo> <msub> <mi>Y</mi> <mrow> <mi>t</mi> <mo>-</mo> <mi>p</mi> </mrow> </msub> <mo>-</mo> <mi>μ</mi> <mo stretchy="false">)</mo> </mrow> <mo>+</mo> <msub> <mi>Z</mi> <mi>t</mi> </msub> </mrow> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation>, where <InlineEquation ID="IEq4"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(\{Z_t\}\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mrow> <mo stretchy="false">{</mo> <msub> <mi>Z</mi> <mi>t</mi> </msub> <mo stretchy="false">}</mo> </mrow> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation> is an IID sequence with mean zero, variance <InlineEquation ID="IEq5"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(\sigma ^2\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <msup> <mi>σ</mi> <mn>2</mn> </msup> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation>, and common distribution function <InlineEquation ID="IEq6"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(F_0(z)\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mrow> <msub> <mi>F</mi> <mn>0</mn> </msub> <mrow> <mo stretchy="false">(</mo> <mi>z</mi> <mo stretchy="false">)</mo> </mrow> </mrow> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation>. Indexing by quantile <InlineEquation ID="IEq7"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(q=F_0(z)\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mrow> <mi>q</mi> <mo>=</mo> <msub> <mi>F</mi> <mn>0</mn> </msub> <mrow> <mo stretchy="false">(</mo> <mi>z</mi> <mo stretchy="false">)</mo> </mrow> </mrow> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation>, it will be shown that if the parameters are estimated via maximum likelihood (MLE) using only the first half of the observations (<InlineEquation ID="IEq8"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(Y_1,\dots ,Y_{\lfloor n/2\rfloor }\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mrow> <msub> <mi>Y</mi> <mn>1</mn> </msub> <mo>,</mo> <mo>⋯</mo> <mo>,</mo> <msub> <mi>Y</mi> <mrow> <mo>⌊</mo> <mi>n</mi> <mo stretchy="false">/</mo> <mn>2</mn> <mo>⌋</mo> </mrow> </msub> </mrow> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation>), then the empirical process based on all of the residuals will converge in distribution to <i>B</i>(<i>q</i>), where <i>B</i> is a standard Brownian bridge on [0,&#xa0;1]. If all the data is used to estimate the parameters using MLE or least squares (LS), then the empirical process of the residuals will converge in distribution to <i>B</i>(<i>q</i>) plus a correction term. This is the content of [<CitationRef CitationID="CR9">9</CitationRef>] in the Gaussian case and of [<CitationRef CitationID="CR8">8</CitationRef>] in the more general case. Nevertheless, this correction term disappears when using the first half of the observations to estimate the parameters. These results may be viewed as extensions of the half-sample device of [<CitationRef CitationID="CR6">6</CitationRef>] and also connect with the results of [<CitationRef CitationID="CR5">5</CitationRef>] for the sample ACF.</p>

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Remarks on Testing Goodness of Fit in AR(p) Models Using the Half-Sample Device

  • Harry H. Xi,
  • Richard A. Davis

摘要

Suppose \(Y_1,\dots ,Y_n\) Y 1 , , Y n are observations from an AR(p) process with mean \(\mu \) μ , e.g., \(Y_t=\mu +\phi _1(Y_{t-1}-\mu )+\cdots +\phi _p(Y_{t-p}-\mu )+Z_t\) Y t = μ + ϕ 1 ( Y t - 1 - μ ) + + ϕ p ( Y t - p - μ ) + Z t , where \(\{Z_t\}\) { Z t } is an IID sequence with mean zero, variance \(\sigma ^2\) σ 2 , and common distribution function \(F_0(z)\) F 0 ( z ) . Indexing by quantile \(q=F_0(z)\) q = F 0 ( z ) , it will be shown that if the parameters are estimated via maximum likelihood (MLE) using only the first half of the observations ( \(Y_1,\dots ,Y_{\lfloor n/2\rfloor }\) Y 1 , , Y n / 2 ), then the empirical process based on all of the residuals will converge in distribution to B(q), where B is a standard Brownian bridge on [0, 1]. If all the data is used to estimate the parameters using MLE or least squares (LS), then the empirical process of the residuals will converge in distribution to B(q) plus a correction term. This is the content of [9] in the Gaussian case and of [8] in the more general case. Nevertheless, this correction term disappears when using the first half of the observations to estimate the parameters. These results may be viewed as extensions of the half-sample device of [6] and also connect with the results of [5] for the sample ACF.