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<p>Caribou (<i>Rangifer tarandus groenlandicus</i>) are native to the west coast of Greenland. Their importance to the local communities includes cultural traditions as well as subsistence and commercial harvesting. Thus, long-term monitoring of the caribou is essential for informed management strategies taken by the Greenland government. Our goals were to estimate caribou abundance and the respective spatial distribution in North, Central and South regions of West Greenland. Using Distance Sampling methods, we fit a detection function to the aerial survey data (March 2018 and 2019) from these regions to estimate caribou detection probability, resulting in a caribou abundance estimate of 126 623 (95% CI: 106 689, 150 282, <InlineEquation ID="IEq1"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(\widehat{CV}\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mover accent="true"> <mrow> <mi mathvariant="italic">CV</mi> </mrow> <mo stretchy="false">^</mo> </mover> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation> = 0.086). This model included region and group size as survey covariates, showing that group size was positively related to detectability. Building on the same detectability model, we also fit a Density Surface Model describing caribou abundance as a function of environmental covariates (elevation, slope and distance to the coastline/water), which resulted in an abundance estimate of 150 199 (95% CI: 139 739, 161 442, <InlineEquation ID="IEq2"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(\widehat{CV}\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mover accent="true"> <mrow> <mi mathvariant="italic">CV</mi> </mrow> <mo stretchy="false">^</mo> </mover> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation> = 0.037). This approach, including environmental covariates, achieved greater precision. Further, during the survey period, caribou appeared to prefer inland locations of low elevation associated with river valleys or lakes. The two different approaches resulted in point estimates still indicating large caribou abundance similar to the previous survey periods. Finally, this study provides a previously unavailable and useful spatial distribution of caribou density in West Greenland that can be used for informed management of the population.</p>

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Estimating West Greenland caribou abundance using Density Surface Models

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月19日

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  • Iúri J. F. Correia,
  • Christine Cuyler,
  • Tiago A. Marques,
  • Soraia A. Pereira,
  • Marta M. Rufino

摘要

Caribou (Rangifer tarandus groenlandicus) are native to the west coast of Greenland. Their importance to the local communities includes cultural traditions as well as subsistence and commercial harvesting. Thus, long-term monitoring of the caribou is essential for informed management strategies taken by the Greenland government. Our goals were to estimate caribou abundance and the respective spatial distribution in North, Central and South regions of West Greenland. Using Distance Sampling methods, we fit a detection function to the aerial survey data (March 2018 and 2019) from these regions to estimate caribou detection probability, resulting in a caribou abundance estimate of 126 623 (95% CI: 106 689, 150 282, \(\widehat{CV}\) CV ^ = 0.086). This model included region and group size as survey covariates, showing that group size was positively related to detectability. Building on the same detectability model, we also fit a Density Surface Model describing caribou abundance as a function of environmental covariates (elevation, slope and distance to the coastline/water), which resulted in an abundance estimate of 150 199 (95% CI: 139 739, 161 442, \(\widehat{CV}\) CV ^ = 0.037). This approach, including environmental covariates, achieved greater precision. Further, during the survey period, caribou appeared to prefer inland locations of low elevation associated with river valleys or lakes. The two different approaches resulted in point estimates still indicating large caribou abundance similar to the previous survey periods. Finally, this study provides a previously unavailable and useful spatial distribution of caribou density in West Greenland that can be used for informed management of the population.